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21.01.2014 19:20

American focus : the euro recovered losses against the U.S. dollar

The euro rose against the dollar after the decline of the European session on the back of higher forecasts for global growth from the IMF. The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday revised upward its forecast for global growth in 2014 amid increasing growth in the U.S. , the euro area and Japan. However, the fund said that the risks associated with deflation and financial sector can undermine the overall recovery .

The IMF raised its forecast for growth in world GDP in 2014 to 3.7% from 3.6 % projected in October.

U.S. head recovery. The IMF raised its forecast for GDP growth in the U.S. this year by 0.2 percentage points to 2.8% , although it has lowered the forecast for 2015 by 0.4 percentage points to 3%. This is due to the ongoing battles in Congress over federal spending and balance .

However, the IMF expressed less optimism about Europe, where the authorities have warned of growing risks of falling prices , threatening stall the already sluggish recovery

As for Japan , the IMF raised its forecast for GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points to 1.7%. According to the Fund , the Government of Japan will continue to face difficulties in terms of budget cuts , which would reassure investors , but not slow recovery.

The IMF also raised its forecast for China's GDP growth , the second largest economy in the world , at 0.3 percentage points, to 7.5%.

The euro exchange rate fell moderately earlier against the dollar, which was associated with the release of weak data on Germany. The results of recent studies , which were presented earlier today institute ZEW, showed that German economic expectations fell in January , contrary to forecasts for growth. But , despite the recession , the mood still remain elevated. According to the report , the sentiment index fell in the business environment in the current month to the level of 61.7 points compared to 62.0 points in December . It is worth noting that many economists predicted that this figure will rise to the level of 63.4 points. Nevertheless , we add that the index remained well above long-term average at 24.4 points.

The data showed that 254 analysts and institutional investors were optimistic about the current economic conditions. We add that the ZEW indicator on current conditions rose in January to a level of 41.2 points, compared to 32.4 points in December .

We also learned that the economic expectations for the eurozone rose in January. The corresponding figure improved by 5.0 points to 73.3 points. Indicator of the current economic situation in the euro area rose by 6.2 points to minus 48.2 points level .

Pound was able to recover from the lows against the dollar. Noticeable influence on the bidding had data that were presented today by the Confederation of British Industry . They showed that the balance of industrial orders fell sharply in January, but the index that assesses the prospects for the next three months was at the highest level over the past two years. According to the report , the January balance promzakazov dropped to -2 points, compared with 12 points last month . Many experts expect that this figure is only slightly worse , but it is up to 11 points. In addition, it was reported that the balance of demands for the next three months rose to 22 points from 14 points , and reached the highest level since April 2012 . We also add that new orders in the three months to January, showed the largest increase in nearly three years .

The data also showed that the quarterly balance of prospects for the companies declined to 21 in the three months to January 24 in the three months to October ( the highest since April 2010 ) . Recall that the British manufacturing sector is gradually recovering from the financial crisis , but remains below its peak in 2008 , underscoring the problem re- rebalancing the economy to reduce dependence on domestic consumption.

21.01.2014 18:20

European stocks close

Market Focus

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  • German private sector output growth slowed for the second month running in July
  • ECB's Mersch says as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that uncoventional policies will remain necessary
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