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16.01.2014 07:18

Asian session: The Dollar Spot Index headed for its highest

00:00 Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation January +2.1%

00:01 United Kingdom RICS House Price Balance December 58% 59% 56%

00:30 Australia Unemployment rate December 5.8% 5.8% 5.8%

00:30 Australia Changing the number of employed December 21.0 10.3 -22.6


The Dollar Spot Index headed for its highest in more than four months before a U.S. report economists forecast will show applications for jobless benefits declined last week. Initial jobless claims in the U.S. probably fell to 328,000 in the period ended Jan. 11, the fewest since November, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the Labor Department report today. Economists in a separate Bloomberg poll estimate the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index rose to 8.7 this month from a revised 6.4 in December.

Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, who doesn’t vote on monetary policy this year, said yesterday he expects inflation that’s been “too low” will accelerate toward the Fed’s 2 percent target. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke speaks today.

Data from Australia showed employers unexpectedly cut jobs, sending the nation’s currency to its weakest since August 2010 versus the greenback and an eight-year low against its New Zealand counterpart. In Australia, jobs decreased by 22,600 last month, following November’s revised 15,400 gain, the statistics bureau said today. That compares with a 10,000 increase predicted by economists. The unemployment rate held at 5.8 percent, the highest in four years. Bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia will lower its record-low benchmark rate by July rose to 43 percent from 24 percent yesterday, swaps data compiled by Bloomberg show.


EUR / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.3625

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.6345-75

USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y104.95


There is a heavy calendar Thursday, with a slew of data on both sides of the Atlantic. The European calendar will kick off at 0700GMT, when the EMU December ACEA car registrations numbers are released. At 0700GMT, German December final HICP numbers will also cross the wires. At 0730GMT, the French December Bank of France retail trade index will be published. The ECB monthly bulletin will be published at 0900GMT, with the statement expected to reflect ECB President Draghi's statement ahead of last Thursday's press conference. The final December EMU final HICP data will be released at 1000GMT and is expected to come inline with the preliminary 0.8% y/y and the 0.7% core. ECB speakers kick off at 1000GMT, when Governing Council member Jens Weidmann speaks on "Economic Outlook for 2014", in Berlin. At 1245GMT, ECB Governing Council member Luis Linde will attend a working luncheon with the members of the AED, in Madrid.

Market Focus

  • U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.5 million barrels from the previous week
  • Canada: Retail Sales, m/m, November 0.2% (forecast 0.5%)
  • U.S.: Nonfarm Payrolls, January 227 (forecast 175)
  • Eurozone: Consumer Confidence, January -4.9
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