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15.01.2014 16:40

Oil: an overview of the market situation

Oil prices have risen markedly today , after a government report showed that U.S. crude inventories fell last week to the lowest level in nearly 22 months.

According to the Department of Energy on changes in stocks in the week January 6-12 :

- Oil reserves fell by 7.658 million barrels to 350.234 million barrels ;

- Gasoline inventories increased by 6,183 million barrels . to 233.142 million barrels . ;

- Distillate stocks fell by 1.023 million barrels . to 123.95 million barrels .

- Refining capacity utilization rate 90.0 % versus 92.3 % a week earlier .

" Gasoline inventories increased significantly for several weeks , and there is no demand in the market needed to reduce them ," - said analyst Gene McGillian Tradition Energy .

We also recall that yesterday its data on oil provided Petroleum Institute API. They showed :

- Capacity utilization in the week 90.1% against 92.7 %

- Distillate stocks last week 1.7 million barrels

- Gasoline inventories last week 5.4 million barrels

- Oil reserves for the week 4.1 million barrels

At the same time, investors in the oil market have paid attention to the forecast for the development of BP World Energy Outlook to 2035 , according to which the world energy consumption will grow from 2012 to 2035 by 41% compared with 55 % for the last 23 years and 30 % over the past ten years.

It should also be noted that the forecast of the country 's largest oil company, China National Petroleum Corp, in 2014 , oil demand in China will grow by 4 % - to 518 million tons of fuel - by 4.8% to 300 million tons. This year, demand for oil in China will increase by 4 % Net oil imports in China will rise by 7.1 % - to 298 million, and the country's dependence on oil imports was 58.5 %.

According to the expectations CNPC, processing volumes increase by 6.5% - to 668 million tons , oil production - by 5.1 % , to 509 million barrels. Production of gasoline will increase by 7 % - to 106 million tons, diesel fuel - by 4.5 % to 180 million tons, kerosene - by 9 % to 27.26 million tons. Fuel exports from China will grow next year by more than 30 %.

Gas demand in China will increase by 11 % - up to 186 billion cubic meters , the volume of imports through pipelines - by 17.9 %, to 33 billion cubic meters, and LNG supply - by 20%, to 30 billion cubic meters.

The course of trade also affected the U.S. data , which showed that the manufacturing index in the Fed of New York has grown significantly in January compared with the previous month . According to the data , the manufacturing index in January rose to 12.51 against 2.22 in December. December's initial value was at 0.98 points. Economists expected the index to rise to only 3.2 points. All sub- indices rose compared with the previous month and were in positive territory.

February futures price of U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) rose to $94.35 per barrel.

February futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture rose $1.10 to $107.25 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Market Focus

  • The Bank of Japan decided by a 7-2 majority vote to hold the interest rate at -0.10%
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels from the previous week
  • Australian unemployment rate stable at 5.6% in June
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