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15.01.2014 07:02

Asian session: The dollar rebounded from a two-week low

00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) December +1.8% +1.7%

00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) December -0.5% +0.1%

02:00 China New Loans December 625 589 483

06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y December +15.4% +28.0%


The dollar rebounded from a two-week low against the euro before the Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book business survey.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained yesterday by the most in four weeks after two voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee called for the central bank to continue paring asset purchases even after data on Jan. 10 showed job creation was slower than economists estimated. Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said yesterday he would prefer to end the central bank’s quantitative easing before late 2014. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said he would aim to eliminate the program entirely “at the earliest practicable date.”

Their comments followed a government report on Jan. 10 that showed U.S. employers added fewer workers in December than the most pessimistic forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.

Two more regional Fed chiefs, Charles Evans from Chicago and Dennis Lockhart from Atlanta, will speak today. Neither are FOMC voting members this year.

The World Bank raised its global growth forecast yesterday to 3.2 percent this year from a June estimate of 3 percent. The Washington-based lender maintained its projection for the U.S. economy to expand 2.8 percent, a one percentage point acceleration from 2013. “Carry trades will pick up,” said Mitul Kotecha, the global head of currency strategy in Hong Kong at Credit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank SA. “You’re going to see yield differentials widen further, particularly against the yen, and I think the yen will increasingly be used as a funding currency.”


EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.3625

GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.6410

USD / JPY: during the Asian session, the pair rose to Y104.50


There is a full calendar on both sides of the Atlantic Wednesday, with a string of data and central bank speakers. The European calendar gets underway at 0800GMT, when the German Destatis office will release the 2013 GDP data. Full year GDP is seen higher by 0.5% on year. Further European inflation data is set for release at 0800GMT, when the Spanish final December HICP numbers will cross the wires. At 0815GMT, the Swiss November retail sales numbers will be published. Central bank speakers kick off at 0820GMT, when Bank of Lithuania Gov. Vitas Vasiliauskas speaks in Vienna. At 1000GMT, the EMU November trade balance data will be released, with analysts looking for a E14.8 bn, up from E14.5 bn in October. ECB Executive Board member Yves Mersch will speak on "How bank unit will reinforce the monetary unit", while Bundesbank Board member Carl-Ludwig Thiele to speak on Euro success stories, with the event starting at 1300GMT.

Market Focus

  • Donald J. Trump was inaugurated as the 45th president of the United States
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  • U.S.: Nonfarm Payrolls, January 227 (forecast 175)
  • Eurozone: Consumer Confidence, January -4.9
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