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21.11.2013 16:20

Gold: an overview of the market situation

Gold prices continued their decline yesterday , dropping to a four-month low today , which was due to speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve may begin to phase out its program of monetary stimulus in the near future .

Note that the last published minutes of the last FOMC meeting showed that the Federal Reserve may cut its bond buying program , which is a monthly $ 85 billion in the coming months as the economy improves.

"In general, politicians expect that these will be in line with the forecast of the Committee , which assumes continued improvement in the labor market and, thus , ensures reduction in the pace of purchases in the coming months ", - said the minutes .

Minutes of the last meeting, show a wide debate on how to improve the clarity of his plans about holding interest rates close to zero . Politicians have not taken any decisions on these plans.

FOMC members also discussed lowering the interest rate the Fed on excess reserves , which currently stands at 0.25 percent. According to the protocol , the majority of the participants were told that a reduction in the rate can be considered at any stage , although the benefits of such a move is generally seen as a slight exception , perhaps , as a signal of political will . "

Note that the pressure on gold also helped the U.S. data , which showed that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits , a measure of layoffs, fell by 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 323,000 in the week ended November 16. Economists had forecast 333,000 initial claims . The value of the previous week was revised up to 344,000 from 339,000 , which was originally reported. Four-week moving average of claims , which smooths out the volatility of weekly data, fell to 338,500 .

Note that if the improvement continues, the Federal Reserve may soon decide that the economy is strong enough to start closing the program of bond purchases in the amount of $ 85 billion a month.

Meanwhile, today it was announced that the stocks SPDR Gold Trust - the largest gold exchange-traded fund in the world, fell yesterday by 2.70 tons , reaching with four and a half year low - at the level of 860.31 tons.

The cost of the December gold futures on COMEX today dropped to $ 1240.40 per ounce.

Market Focus

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  • U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels from the previous week
  • Australian unemployment rate stable at 5.6% in June
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