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12.11.2013 13:15

European session: the British Pound declined significantly against the U.S. dollar

Data:

00:01 UK House Price Balance of RICS October Revised to 53% 54% 59 % 57 %

00:30 Australia Index of business sentiment from the National Australia Bank on May 12 Октябрь

05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Index in October 45.4 46.3 41.2

6:00 Japan Change in orders for equipment (preliminary data), y / y in October -6.3 % +8.4 %

7:00 Germany CPI m / m (final ) October -0.2 % -0.2 % -0.3 %

7:00 Germany CPI Y / Y (final ) October +1.2 % +1.2 % +1.2 %

09:30 UK Retail Price Index m / m in October +0.4 % +0.5 % +0.0 %

09:30 UK Retail Price Index y / y in October +3.2 % +3.0 % +2.7 %

09:30 UK retail price index , the base value , y / y in October +3.2 % +3.1 % +2.7 %

09:30 UK Producer Price Index m / m in October -1.2 % -0.3 % -0.6 %

09:30 UK Producer Price Index y / y in October +1.1 % +0.3 % -0.3 %

09:30 UK Producer Price Index (m / m ) October -0.1 % 0.0 % -0.3 %

09:30 UK Producer Price Index y / y in October +1.2 % +1.0 % +0.8 %

09:30 UK Consumer Price Index m / m in October +0.4 % +0.4 % +0.1 %

09:30 UK CPI y / y in October +2.7 % +2.5 % +2.2 %

09:30 UK Consumer Price Index, the base value , y / y in October +2.2 % +2.0 % +1.7 %

10:00 Eurozone ECB board member Jens Weidmann


The pound fell markedly against the U.S. dollar, which has been associated with the release of weak data on Britain. The Office for National Statistics said that the annual inflation rate in the UK in October fell to its lowest level in more than a year. Note that this reduction should help convince the Bank of England did not change interest rates until the unemployment rate will not fall to the level of 7.0%.

The report showed that the results of last month 's annual inflation fell to 2.2 %, compared with 2.7 % in September. We add that the annual growth rate was the lowest since September 2009 . According to the median forecast of economists , the index was up 2.5 percent.

Basic annual inflation, which excludes alcohol , food, tobacco and energy prices , fell to 1.7 percent from 2.2 percent in September , which was the lowest since September 2009 . Economists forecast that growth will be 2 percent. In addition , the data showed that, compared with the previous month in October, consumer prices rose by 0.1 percent, which was less than expected by many experts - at the level of 0.4 .

The Office for National Statistics also reported that in October, the retail price inflation fell to 2.6 per cent year on year from 3.2 percent in September. It was the lowest level since September 2012 . Retail prices excluding mortgage interest payments rose by 2.7 per cent per annum , compared with 3.2 percent the previous month.

A separate report today showed that in October prices paid producers in the UK fell by 0.3 percent in September , showing the strongest decline since June 2012 . Compared with the previous year prices rose by 0.8 percent , registering the smallest annual increase since October 2009 .

The dollar strengthened to a two-month high against the yen amid signs that the world's largest economy is gaining momentum. Note that many market participants are waiting for release of the report by the United States. According to experts, the index of economic activity from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, which is based on 85 economic indicators, rose to 0.15 points in September , compared with August. If this forecast is confirmed, it will be the highest value of this index since February of this year.

Meanwhile, add the pressure on the yen have expectations publication of the report on GDP growth in the third quarter , which will be presented tomorrow. According to the forecasts , economic growth in Japan slowed to 0.4 percent in the third quarter, compared with growth of 0.9 percent in the previous three months.

The Australian dollar fell against the U.S. dollar, which was caused by the publication of a weak report on Australia . Data from the National Australia Bank revealed last month that business confidence in Australia decreased , and the general conditions also remained weak, which supports the view of the central bank about the fragility of the economic recovery.

Business confidence fell to five points from 12 points in September , data showed a monthly survey of the National Bank of Australia . Business conditions remained weak - at -4 points .

Last week the central bank said it is too early to speak of a " stable" improvement in mood of households and businesses. It also lowered the forecast for economic growth for 2014

The central bank forecasts that gross domestic product will grow by about 3.2 percent for the year to December 2014. The previous forecast , which was published three months ago, the expected growth in the 2.5-3.5 percent. The outlook for inflation remains within the target level of 2 to 3 percent.

"Companies are probably overestimated their expectations regarding future performance , taking into account the long weakness in the real world of business ," - said Alan Oster, chief economist at NAB. - « However, confidence remains higher than the average for the previous three years."


EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3358 , but then rose to $ 1.3430

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.5851 , and then went back up to $ 1.5905

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y99.80


At 13:30 GMT the United States will publish the index of economic activity from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in September. At 20:00 GMT New Zealand will release a report on the financial stability of the RBNZ . At 23:30 GMT Australia will present the consumer confidence index from Westpac in November. At 23:50 GMT Japan will report on changes in the volume of orders for machinery and equipment in September.

12.11.2013 13:00

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