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07.11.2013 16:40

Oil: an overview of the market situation

The cost of oil futures fell today, reaching at the same level of $ 94 per barrel, which was due to unexpected decline in rates by the European Central Bank and the significant strengthening of the dollar.

Note that the ECB cut its refinancing rate to 0.25 % from 0.50 %, and also reduced the rate of emergency lending by 25 basis points to 0.75%. The Governing Council decided to leave the bank deposit rate unchanged at zero . Recall that the ECB did not change its key interest rate in May, preferring instead to rely on the landmark , published in July. He is expected to maintain interest rates at current or lower level for a "long time." Most economists expect the ECB to leave policy unchanged , but alarmingly low inflation in October , which became known last week, caught investors and the government by surprise, and could put pressure on the ECB in order to take action sooner rather than later. Lowering rates indicates that the Governing Council has decided that such a low inflation rate in the euro area is not acceptable and must act quickly to restore is of no effect .

Add that to the cost of oil also affected the data from the U.S. Department of Commerce , which showed that gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 2.8 % in the third quarter. The result showed the highest growth rate for the year , which followed a 2.5 % rise in the second quarter. Economists had expected growth in the third quarter will be at 1.9 %. The report reflects a good picture of the state of the economy before the 16 -day partial government shutdown , which began Oct. 1. The higher growth housekeeper largely attributable to restocking by companies and the rise in the cost of state and local governments.

It should be noted that in the course of trade is also affected by a report from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries , which showed that the demand for oil could fall to 29.2 million barrels a day in 2018 , compared with 30.3 million barrels per year this year. In OPEC also said that the growth of imports from other countries such as Canada and Latin America and the increased use of biofuels will contribute to a drop in demand for its own products.

In OPEC also predicted that world oil demand will increase from 81.2 million barrels per day in 2013 to 89.7 million bpd in 2020 and to 100.2 million barrels per day in 2035. At the same time, the share of renewable energy sources and other types of fuel down from 32.2 percent in 2010 to 26.3 percent in 2035.

The cost of the December futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to $ 94.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

December futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture fell $1.12 to $ 103.75 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

Market Focus

  • The eurozone started the third quarter on a solid footing, according to PMI survey data
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • German private sector output growth slowed for the second month running in July
  • ECB's Mersch says as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that uncoventional policies will remain necessary
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