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07.11.2013 16:20

Oil: an overview of the market situation

Gold prices declined significantly today , down with up to three-week low , and losing all previously earned position achieved after the decision of the European Central reduce the interest rate to a record low , as the sharp rise in the dollar outweighed the impact of a softer monetary policy.

Note that the lower interest rates tend to play in favor of gold , because they reduce the costs of holdings, but at the same time, reinforce fears about inflation in the long run. However , gold was sensitive to the pressure from the recent strengthening of the dollar . We add that the U.S. currency hit a seven-week high against the euro after the ECB's decision , and continued to rise after the third-quarter U.S. economic growth exceeded forecasts.

The data showed that U.S. GDP in the third quarter rose 2.8 % year on year, after rising 2.5 % in the previous quarter. Initially, the data had to go out on Oct. 30 , but was delayed due to the termination of the period of the government. The median forecast of experts was at 1.9 %. Range of estimates ranged from 1.2 % to 3 %. Consumer spending rose 1.5 % - the increase was the weakest since 2011 . A significant contribution to GDP growth has brought an increase in inventories , which was the highest since the first quarter . The contribution of inventories to GDP growth was 0.8 %. They rose by 86 billion dollars a year on year, after rising by 56.6 billion dollars in the second quarter.

Gold prices have fallen 20 percent this year on expectations that the Federal Reserve will reduce the amount of its economic stimulus program . Investors are eagerly awaiting key U.S. data , which will be presented this week, as they may bring a clue as to when this will happen. Analysts said that Friday's employment report in the U.S. in October may provide the clearest understanding of the influence of " shutdown " of the government in the past month , which may also trigger an increase in terms of bond buying program the Fed, which has undermined the dollar .

Meanwhile, today it was announced that the gold reserves in the holding SPDR Gold Trust rose yesterday by 2.1 tons to 868.42 million tons , showing the first increase since Oct. 22. Note that from the beginning of the year inventories fell by 450 tons, reaching at this lowest level since early 2009.

The cost of the December gold futures on COMEX today rose to $ 1309.90 per ounce.

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