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02.10.2013 06:02

Asian session: The euro retreated from an eight-month high

01:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m August -4.7% +3.4%

01:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m August +10.8% -0.7% -4.7%

01:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y August +28.3% +12.3% +7.7%

01:30 Australia Trade Balance August -0.77 -0.45 -815


The euro retreated from an eight-month high versus the dollar before the European Central Bank meets today for the first time since President Mario Draghi said he’s ready to inject cash into the banking system. ECB policy makers meeting in Paris will keep the benchmark refinancing rate unchanged at a record low of 0.5 percent, according to all 52 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Draghi will hold a news conference after the decision.

The ECB president will hold off from pumping more cash into the region’s financial system as long as the threat of action keeps market interest rates under control, according to economists from Berenberg Bank to Nomura International Plc.

The greenback halted losses against most major peers before a private report forecast to show companies in the U.S. added jobs at a faster pace. U.S. lawmakers still need to agree on raising the debt limit to avoid a default after Oct. 17, following the government’s first partial shutdown in 17 years. In the U.S., companies added 180,000 to their payrolls in September, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg before today’s report from the ADP Research Institute. Firms hired 176,000 workers in August, according to ADP.

Demand for the euro was limited as the survival of Italian Prime Minister Letta’s government will be tested in a confidence vote today, after former premier Silvio Berlusconi’s decision last week to withdraw support. Berlusconi’s People of Liberty party has splintered, with Angelino Alfano, who stepped down as deputy premier at Berlusconi’s request, saying yesterday his party will back the government.

New Zealand’s dollar weakened for a second day after a central bank official said the nation’s neutral interest rate has fallen. The neutral 90-day rate is about 4.5 percent and rates will approach that level in early 2016, John McDermott, the assistant governor and head of economics, said according to the bank’s website. It was 5.5 percent to 6.5 percent in previous cycles, he said.


EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3505-25

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair fell to $ 1.6160

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y97.60


There is a full calendar on both sides of the Atlantic Wednesday, although the ECB's latest policy meeting is likely to dominate proceedings ahead of the US open. The European calendar kicks off at 0700GMT, with the release of Spanish unemployment data. That will be followed at 0800GMT by the release of the German August car registrations. Ahead of the ECB policy decision, the Irish Central Bank Quarterly Bulletin will be released at 1000GMT. The decision from the ECB's September policy meeting will be released at 1145GMT. Markets are not expecting any change in policy, although they will be closely watching President Draghi's press conference at 1230GMT.

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