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20.09.2013 18:20

American focus : the euro slightly rose

Euro slightly higher against the U.S. dollar after the data on the index of consumer confidence in the eurozone. The preliminary data that has been presented by the European Commission , this month confidence among euro area has continued to improve. However , experts warn that given the fact that the unemployment rate is still close to record highs , and wages rise more slowly than inflation , we can hardly wait for the sharp increase in costs.

According to the report , a preliminary index of consumer confidence in the euro area rose in September to the level of -14.9 , compared to -15.6 in August , reaching thus the highest level since July 2011 . It should be noted that the improvement in consumer confidence is observed from December 2012 and is a positive development for the currency area. Increased confidence was a factor in the growth of a small amount of consumer spending in the second quarter of this year, helping the economy to return to growth after the reduction , which lasted 18 months.

We also add that the focus of the market participants are widely expected elections in Germany , which will be held this Sunday. Preliminary surveys indicate the prospect of victory, Merkel's center-right party , however, all concerned with the issue of a coalition government. According to the latest Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Merkel's conservative party won the support of 40 % of the vote , while its current coalition partner - the center-left Party of Free Democrats gained 5.5%. Potential change in the composition of the government is unlikely to significantly affect the policies of Germany, though many fear that the representation of the party " alternative for Germany " in parliament can influence the course of solving problems in the eurozone , for example, through the provision of additional aid to Greece .

It should be noted that in the course of trade and expectations affect performance of the president of the European Central Bank , Mario Draghi , scheduled for next week. At the moment , Draghi , unlike his colleagues Bernanke refrained from printing euros to buy back bonds .

The pound rose against the dollar earlier , which has helped to publish data on Britain. As it became known , the level of the budget deficit in the UK was slightly less than expected in August as government agencies cut back on spending , but official data showed very little evidence of economic recovery , which is reflected in the growth of tax revenues.

The Office for National Statistics said that public sector net borrowing , the budget deficit amounted to 13.2 billion pounds in August, compared with 14.4 billion pounds in the same month last year. Economists had forecast that borrowing would be at 13.5 billion pounds. It should be noted that the government is committed to ensure that the base deficit , which does not include transfers from the Royal Mail and the Bank of England, was not more than 120 billion pounds , or 7.5 percent of GDP this year . When the coalition led by the Conservatives came to power in May 2010 , the deficit was 11 percent of annual GDP.

In addition, the data showed that in the first five months of the current fiscal year, the base deficit was 46.8 billion pounds, while in 2012 over the same period the deficit reached 50.5 billion pounds.

Until recently, the weak economic growth is constrained by tax revenues and complicating government spending cap on social security. In fact, this has led to the fact that the process of deficit reduction slowed in the past year. Economists say the government is now easier to achieve their goals. Government revenues in April-August 2013 rose by 2.8 percent.

20.09.2013 17:25

European stocks close

Market Focus

  • The eurozone started the third quarter on a solid footing, according to PMI survey data
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • German private sector output growth slowed for the second month running in July
  • ECB's Mersch says as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that uncoventional policies will remain necessary
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