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20.09.2013 12:15

European session: the dollar rose slightly against the euro


00:00 China Bank holiday

03:00 New Zealand Credit Card Spending August -0.3% +1.2%

04:00 Japan BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks

08:30 United Kingdom PSNB, bln August -1.6 11.9 11.5

The euro exchange rate fell slightly against the dollar, but in spite of this, still trading near seven-month high in anticipation of today's publication of macroeconomic data in the euro area. According to the median forecast of economists consumer confidence in Europe will be the highest for the past two years, m grow , probably to minus 14.5 in September from minus 15.6 in the previous month . Experts also predict output growth in the Euro- region, the third consecutive month.

We also add that the focus of the market participants are widely expected elections in Germany , which will be held this Sunday. Preliminary surveys indicate the prospect of victory, Merkel's center-right party , however, all concerned with the issue of a coalition government. According to the latest Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Merkel's conservative party won the support of 40 % of the vote , while its current coalition partner - the center-left Party of Free Democrats gained 5.5%. Potential change in the composition of the government is unlikely to significantly affect the policies of Germany, though many fear that the representation of the party " alternative for Germany " in parliament can influence the course of solving problems in the eurozone , for example, through the provision of additional aid to Greece .

It should be noted that in the course of trade and expectations affect performance of the president of the European Central Bank , Mario Draghi , scheduled for next week. At the moment , Draghi , unlike his colleagues Bernanke refrained from printing euros to buy back bonds .

The pound rose against the dollar , thus restoring all the previously lost positions , which has helped to publish data on Britain. As it became known , the level of the budget deficit in the UK was slightly less than expected in August as government agencies cut back on spending , but official data showed very little evidence of economic recovery , which is reflected in the growth of tax revenues.

The Office for National Statistics said that public sector net borrowing , the budget deficit amounted to 13.2 billion pounds in August, compared with 14.4 billion pounds in the same month last year. Economists had forecast that borrowing would be at 13.5 billion pounds. It should be noted that the government is committed to ensure that the base deficit , which does not include transfers from the Royal Mail and the Bank of England, was not more than 120 billion pounds , or 7.5 percent of GDP this year . When the coalition led by the Conservatives came to power in May 2010 , the deficit was 11 percent of annual GDP.

In addition, the data showed that in the first five months of the current fiscal year, the base deficit was 46.8 billion pounds, while in 2012 over the same period the deficit reached 50.5 billion pounds.

Until recently, the weak economic growth is constrained by tax revenues and complicating government spending cap on social security. In fact, this has led to the fact that the process of deficit reduction slowed in the past year. Economists say the government is now easier to achieve their goals. Government revenues in April-August 2013 rose by 2.8 percent.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3507

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell from $ 1.6065 to $ 1.6015

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y99.62

At 12:30 GMT Canada will release the consumer price index and core consumer price index from the Bank of Canada in August. At 14:00 GMT Eurozone will present indicator of consumer confidence for September.

20.09.2013 12:00


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