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19.09.2013 12:15

European session: the dollar continued its decline against the euro


00:00 China Bank holiday

01:30 Australia RBA Bulletin Quarter III

04:00 Japan BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m July -0.6% +0.3% +0.5%

05:45 Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts Quarter IV

06:00 Switzerland Trade Balance August 2.38 2.74 1.85

07:30 Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%

07:30 Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) August +1.1% +0.5% -0.9%

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Sales (YoY) August +3.0% +3.3% +2.1%

10:00 United Kingdom CBI industrial order books balance September 0 2 9

The dollar continued its decline against the euro after the Federal Reserve yesterday reaffirmed its commitment to the current policy . The Fed decided to leave the interest rate at the current level of 0.25 %, and keep the size of the monthly program of asset purchases at the same level of $ 85 billion , as the authorities found it necessary to wait for the new signs of steady improvement in the economy . During the press conference after the announcement of the meeting of the Committee of the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the rate of reduction of asset purchases in the future will directly depend on how stable the improvement in the U.S. economy. According to Bernanke , while the process of growth of employment in the U.S. labor market remains " uneven " . Bernanke also said that the rise in interest rates on mortgage loans and uncertainty associated with the fiscal policy of the United States have a negative impact on the economy.

In addition, we add that the Fed lowered its forecast for economic growth . This year, the U.S. economy will be in the range from 2.1 % to 2.3 % instead of 2.3% -2.6 % , as previously thought.

The outlook for unemployment and inflation has remained virtually unchanged. One of the reasons that the Fed is not afraid to maintain the current pace of purchases - it's low inflation . The bank predicts that inflation will not exceed 2% mark until 2016 , well below the threshold of the Fed's 2.5% , as measured by the index PCE.FRS expects that inflation will be at a level not higher than 1.2 % in 2013, and will grow to a range of 1.7 % to 2 % by 2016. Economic growth will be between 2.9 % to 3.1 % in 2014 and 3% to 3.5% in 2015. By 2016, the U.S. economy will grow between 2.5 % to 3.3 %.

Higher rates of growth, in turn, should reduce the unemployment rate in the country, which is 7.3 %. Drop to 7.1% at the end of 2013 to 6.4 % in 2014 to 5.9 % in 2015 and 5.4% in 2016.

In light of these forecasts, the vast majority of Fed policymakers predicted that the bank will not raise interest rates until 2015 . By 2016, the federal funds rate can increase to a range of 1.75% - 2.25 %.

The pound fell markedly against the dollar, which in the first place was due to the publication of the weak performance on Britain. As shown by data from the Office for National Statistics , at the end of last month the amount of UK retail sales unexpectedly , and at the same time fell sharply , reflecting a marked decline in sales in food stores .

According to the report , a monthly basis, retail sales including automotive fuel , fell last month to 0.9 percent, almost entirely offset by an increase of 1.1 percent, which was recorded the month before. Add that to the experts according to the average value of this indicator would grow by 0.5 percent. Also , the data showed that sales excluding automotive fuel fell 1 percent after rising by 1.2 percent in July . Economists forecast that it will remain unchanged.

In annual terms, growth in retail sales including automotive fuel, slowed to 2.1 percent from 3 percent the previous month. Similarly, there was a sales excluding automotive fuel , whose growth declined to 2.3 percent from 3.2 percent. Experts estimate sales growth (including gasoline) should be 3.3 percent.

The Swiss franc rose slightly against the dollar amid the release of economic forecasts SECO. The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) on Thursday raised its economic forecast for Switzerland for 2013 and 2014 , citing the increase in domestic demand.

It is worth noting that in its autumn forecast of the experts group raised the economic assessment for 2013 to the level of 1.8 percent from 1.4 percent , saying that the key factor is the strong performance of the domestic economy .

In SECO said private consumption , in particular, has provided strong support to the economy for several quarters . Consequently, the projections for the growth of private spending were increased to 2.4 percent from 2 percent , while the projections for public expenditure were decreased to 1.3 percent from 1.4 percent.

In addition, studies have revealed that the picture in the sector investment in construction is also positive , although limited capacity and the impact of weather conditions caused a temporary break in the upward dynamics. Meanwhile, SECO confirmed the forecast for growth in investment in the construction of 2 per cent .

Exports and imports are forecast to increase by 1.2 percent and 1.1 percent respectively in the year. In June, experts predicted growth of 1.6 percent for exports and 1.2 percent for imports. Also SECO noted that the positive changes in the economy maintained a steady level of immigration, low interest rates and a lack of inflation. In addition , there were more positive signs of early recovery in exports .

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3569

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.6059

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y99.00

At 12:30 GMT Canada will announce the change in the volume of wholesale trade for July, and the U.S. balance of payments current account balance for the 2nd quarter . At 14:00 GMT the U.S. will report on the volume of sales in the secondary market in August , and will present a production - Philadelphia Fed index for September

19.09.2013 12:00


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