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06.09.2013 12:15

European session: the dollar rose moderately against the euro

Data

00:00 G20 G20 Meetings

05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index July 107.2 107.9 107.8

05:00 Japan Coincident Index July 105. 106.9 106.4

05:00 Japan BoJ monthly economic report September

06:00 Germany Current Account July 17.3 14.0 14.3

06:00 Germany Trade Balance July 15.7 15.9 14.5

06:45 France Consumer confidence August 82 83 84

06:45 France Trade Balance, bln July -4.4 -4.5 -5.1

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index August +0.9% +0.7% +0.4%

07:00 United Kingdom Halifax house price index 3m Y/Y August +4.6% +5.6% +5.4%

07:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves August 434.9 433.2 434.2

07:15 Switzerland Industrial Production (YoY) Quarter II +3.0% +1.5% -4.2%

07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) August -0.4% 0.0% -0.1%

07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) August 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (MoM) July +1.3% Revised From +1.1% +0.2% 0.0%

08:30 United Kingdom Industrial Production (YoY) July +1.2% -1.7% -1.6%

08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (MoM) July +2.0% Revised From +1.9% +0.4% +0.2%

08:30 United Kingdom Manufacturing Production (YoY) July +2.0% -0.7% -0.7%

08:30 United Kingdom Consumer Inflation Expectations Quarter III +3.6% +3.2%

08:30 United Kingdom Trade in goods July -8.2 Revised From -8.1 -8.2 -9.9

10:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) July +2.0% Revised From +2.4% -0.3% -1.7%

10:00 Germany Industrial Production (YoY) July +0.1% Revised From +2.0% +0.6% -2.2%


The dollar rose against the euro, which was partly due to the release of weak data on Germany. Preliminary data , which were announced today by the Federal Statistical Office or Destatis, showed Germany's trade surplus narrowed in July . Exports of goods decreased by 1.1 % m / m in July , while imports increased by 0.5 %. The adjusted trade balance of the country amounted to 14.5 billion euros in July , which was below the expectations of experts at the level of 15.9 billion dollars. The trade balance for June was revised up to 15.8 billion euros from 15.7 billion previously .

In addition , the pressure on the European currency had data on industrial production . As it became known , the volume of industrial production in Germany fell in July 2013 by 1.7 % compared with the previous month , when its growth was 2 %. This decline was the highest since April 2012 . Analysts had expected a decline in the index of only 0.3%.

Meanwhile, we add that the strengthening of the dollar helped by the fact that market participants are waiting for new data from the U.S. labor market , which may affect the decision of the Federal Reserve System on the timing and pace of clotting incentive programs . According to the median forecast of economists , the number of new jobs created in the U.S. will grow up in August at 181 thousand against 162 thousand increase in July. The Ministry of Labor will report today and the official unemployment rate , which according to preliminary estimates of analysts, at 7.4 %, which would be the lowest since December 2008 .

Value of the pound against the dollar has declined against the publication of large amounts of data across Britain , which, in general, were worse than expected .

The Office for National Statistics reported that by the end of July the volume of British industrial production remained unchanged, while the trade deficit has increased significantly . It should be noted that experts predict the volume of production in the industrial sector , accounting for about one-sixth of the British economy should have grown by 0.2 %. We also add that the figure for the previous month was revised upwards from 1.1 % to 1.3 %.

Meanwhile , it was revealed in production in the manufacturing sector grew in July by 0.2 %, compared with a forecast of 0.4 %. The last reading was also much lower than the growth the previous month - by 2.0 % , which was revised up from 1.9 %.

Experts point out that in recent months traced surprisingly strong signs of recovery of the British economy. Against this background , it is expected that the growth in the third quarter to continue and accelerate its growth as compared to the second quarter, in which the economy grew by 0.7 %. The Bank of England last month pledged to keep interest rates unchanged until the unemployment rate falls to 7%, and according to the latest data , there is a possibility that rates could rise as early as next year.

In addition, we note that even some data presented today showed that the deficit in trade in goods of Great Britain rose to 9.85 billion pounds in July , after a sharp decline in June - to 8.2 billion Many experts predicted that the deficit will increase slightly - to the level of 8.2 billion from 8.1 billion , which was originally reported last month .


EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3103

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.5562

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y99.48


At 12:30 GMT Canada is to release data on unemployment for August, and the change in the number of employees in August. Also at this time the U.S. will report on the unemployment rate and the change in the number of employed in non-farm payrolls for August. At 14:00 GMT Canada will present from Ivey PMI index for August, while the UK will release data on the change in GDP from NIESR for August. At 19:00 GMT the U.S. Treasury Department released a report on the currency. In Russia will meet G20.


06.09.2013 12:00

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