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05.09.2013 12:10

European session: the dollar has lost all previously earned positions against the euro


00:00 G20 G20 Meetings

00:00 U.S. FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota

01:30 Australia Trade Balance July 0.60 0.11 -0.77

03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%

03:00 Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Base Target 270 270 270

03:00 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

07:30 Japan BOJ Press Conference

10:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) July +5.0% -0.7%  -2.7%

10:00 Germany Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) July +4.3% +2.7% +5.0%

11:00 United Kingdom BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%  0.50%

11:00 United Kingdom Asset Purchase Facility 375 375   375

11:00 United Kingdom MPC Rate Statement

11:45 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%

The euro rose against the dollar, thus restoring all the previously lost positions ahead of the ECB press conference and U.S. data .

In anticipation of the ECB meeting , experts note that most likely will repeat today Draghi pigeon abstracts of their policies transparent communication . Eurozone is still a long way out of the crisis and overcome the weakness of the economy, and in these circumstances, the ECB will try to put pressure on the recent rise in market rates . But if the spirit of pigeon ECB is not enough to lower the pair EUR / USD below $ 1.3139 (low of September) , it may make economic performance of the United States.

It is expected that, in general , the statistics on the U.S. would be positive. The continued economic growth favors the fast decline in stimulation of the Federal Reserve System . An estimated 65 % of the experts , the American Central Bank may decide to reduce the amount of monthly redemption of bonds at a meeting on September 17-18 . Impact on the dollar could have a publication of the report of the Employment Research Institute, ADP. According to the median forecast of economists , the number of new jobs created in the U.S. economy in the last month is likely to grow by 182 million value remains high as the July report , when the growth rate was fixed at 200 thousand

Meanwhile, we add that the course of trade partly influenced by the placement of bonds of Spain and France. Today, Spain's Treasury held an auction , the results of which failed through the sale of 10 - and 5- year bonds attract E4 billion , reaching the upper limit of the target range E3 -4 billion in the auction were sold at E2.412 billion of securities maturing in October 2023 ( average yield 4.526 % against 4.723 % at the previous auction ) . It was also sold bonds due in October 2018 to E1.596 billion ( average yield 3.504 % vs. prev. 3.561 %).

Recently it became known that the yield on Spanish debt fell for the most recent auction, while the yield on 10 -year securities of France noted a record high for Hollande stay in power.

The pound rose sharply against the dollar, against the decision of the Bank of England. Note that in the course of today's meeting of the Bank of England did not bring any surprises markets , leaving the key lending rate at a record low 0.5 %, where it has been since March 2009 . Acquisitions of assets of the Central Bank has kept the £ 375 billion Bank of England intends to maintain the rate at a low level, at least as long as the rate of unemployment in the country will not fall under the 7% mark , as it happens, is not expected before 2016. We add that the report of this meeting will be published on Wednesday, September 18.

The yen fell against the dollar, after not even looking at the fact that the Bank of Japan left its monetary policy unchanged and raised its forecast for growth. It should be noted that today, the Bank of Japan said that the country's economy is recovering. This strengthens the position of those who favor the increase of the sales tax next year. In addition , it was said that Japan's economy "moderately reduced " . This is the most optimistic statement from March 2008 , when the economy was rated as " expanding moderately " . In August assessment of the economy was a " moderate recovery " - the Bank of Japan announced almost a full recovery .

The government plans to raise the consumption tax from 5% to 8% in April next year, a decision about the strategy to be announced in early October.

The Bank of Japan unanimously decided to keep the key policy of increasing the money supply by 60-70 trillion . yen in the year through the purchase of government bonds in Japan. The bank plans to achieve the target level of 2% inflation over the current leniency policy. The government may take further measures to stimulate the economy in April in order to minimize the effect of increasing the sales tax on the growth of the economy.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose from $ 1.3161 to $ 1.3218

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.5662

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair reached the level of Y100.12

At 12:15 GMT the United States will announce the change in the number of employees from ADP in August. At 12:30 GMT will be the monthly press conference of the ECB . Also at this time, the U.S. announced a change in the level of labor productivity in the non-manufacturing sector for the 2nd quarter . At 14:00 GMT the U.S. will report on changes in the volume of industrial orders in July , and will also release a composite index of ISM non-manufacturing activity in August. In Russia will meet G20.

05.09.2013 12:00


Market Focus

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  • U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels from the previous week
  • Australian unemployment rate stable at 5.6% in June
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