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01:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence July 0 -3
01:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence July 0 -7
The dollar touched the highest in almost a week versus the yen before a report today that may show U.S. retail sales climbed for a fourth month. The U.S. Commerce Department will probably say today retail sales climbed 0.3 percent last month after a 0.4 percent advance in June, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The yen slid against all of its 16 major counterparts after Japan’s machine orders fell in June, spurring bets that the nation’s central bank will step up stimulus measures. In Japan, machine orders declined 2.7 percent in June from the previous month, when they climbed 10.5 percent, data released today by the Cabinet Office showed. That compares with an estimate for a 7 percent decline in a Bloomberg survey. Orders climbed 4.9 percent from a year earlier, according to the report.
The euro strengthened versus most of its peers before a report that may show German economic confidence is at a five-month high. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim will probably say today its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict economic developments six months in advance, climbed to 39.9 this month from 36.3 in July, according to economists polled by Bloomberg. If confirmed, that would be the highest since March. Analysts in a separate survey predict a report tomorrow will show the euro-area economy expanded 0.2 percent in the second quarter, edging back to growth for the first time since 2011. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi held benchmark borrowing costs in the 17-nation region at a record-low 0.5 percent on Aug. 1, reiterating that interest rates will stay low for the foreseeable future.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3290-10
GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.5445-65
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair rose above Y97.50
There is a raft of UK releases expected at 0830GMT, with the inflation report the main reading. Input prices are expected to have spiked higher in July, due to the sharp rise in oil prices which were further magnified by the fall in sterling. Sterling fell some 1.9% on the month against the dollar. Core output prices, which exclude petrol prices, are forecast to be flat on the month and up 1.2% on the year, showing underlying pipeline inflation pressure remain contained. The Bank of England's August Inflation Report predicted headline CPI would hold close to its June 2.9% level in coming months, dropping to around 2.8% on the year in July and averaging 2.82% in Q3. The British Retail Consortium Shop Price Index showed accelerating high street deflation in July, led by the drop in clothing and footwear prices. Offsetting the fall in clothing and footwear prices in the National Statistics data will be the near 1% rise on the month in petrol prices. Also due are the official UK house price numbers from the ONS.
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