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07.08.2013 18:20

American focus: the euro continued to rise

The euro rose sharply against the dollar, helped by positive data from Germany. The Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology reported that as a result of June's industrial production in Germany increased substantially, thereby exceeded the forecasts of most economists.

According to the report, the seasonally adjusted June industrial output rose 2.4% mom, recovering from a fall of 0.8%, which was recorded in the previous month, and revised downward. It is worth noting that according to the average estimates of experts industrial output had increased by only 0.3%, compared with the initial estimate of May at 1% decline.

In addition, it was reported that the volume of production, with the exception of the construction sector rose in June by 2.2% on a monthly basis. It should be noted that production in the construction sector was 1.6% more than in the previous month.

Compared with June 2012, industrial output adjusted for the number of working days, increased by 2%, after a 1.2% decline in May, which was revised down from 1% reduction. Add that economists estimate that industrial production was down by 0.3% per annum.

In addition, support for the single currency was a message stating that the agency Fitch Affirms Germany at 'AAA' with a stable outlook. Fitch said that the German government has exceeded the plan by some key financial goals. In 2012, the government structural balance was in surplus for the first time since reunification.

Fitch also believes that the debt / GDP ratio reached a peak. "Germany has all the ingredients to reduce the national debt - said in a statement. - The economy is growing, the state budget is relatively favorable, nominal interest rates at low levels. In addition, despite the fact that the debt / GDP ratio of 81.9% is higher than average for countries with a rating of 'AAA', 49%, it is within the acceptable range. "

The yen rose against the start today of the Bank of Japan. It is expected that the bankers will refrain from expanding existing monetary stimulus to devalue the yen this year against the dollar by 11%. Recall that in the present Central Bank of Japan monthly purchases of more than 7 trillion yen ($ 72 billion) of government bonds to two years to disperse percent inflation rate to 2%.

Additional impact on the market have the statements of the last Dallas Fed Richard Fisher, and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans. In particular, Richard Fisher, one of the chief critics of QE, said that the Fed is close to the beginning of the process of reducing the volume of quantitative easing, while Charles Evans said that does not rule out the possibility of narrowing the program of redemption of bonds on which month is spent $ 85 billion, already at the September meeting.

The British pound rose significantly against major currencies, which was associated with the application of the Bank of England, which revealed the plans for the future monetary policy of the central bank, noting that the key interest rate will remain at a record low of 0.5% until while the unemployment rate in the UK has fallen to 7%.

Add that also helped strengthen the currency of the Bank of England comments Mark Carney, who said that gross domestic product will not reach its pre-crisis level in the coming year. He also added that the Monetary Policy Committee will continue to pursue a policy change to secure economic growth.

The transition to economic thresholds is another innovation in the policies of the Bank of England. While the economy is showing signs of strengthening, the central bank said the new tactic is to reduce the risk of "premature" increase in short-term rates and help ensure recovery.

In addition, the monetary policy committee predicts that the most likely in the next 18-24 months, the consumer price inflation will be 0.5 percentage points higher than the 2% target, and can grow even stronger. Medium-term inflation expectations can no longer be called sustainable. The Bank of England said that if the threshold is breached, it will not mean an automatic increase in interest rates.

The central bank forecasts that economic growth will be 0.5 percent this quarter after expanding 0.6 percent in the previous three months. Gross domestic product in 2013 and 2014 will rise to 1.5 percent and 2.7 percent respectively.

07.08.2013 17:21

European stocks close

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