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07.08.2013 12:15

European session: the British Pound has increased significantly


01:30 Australia Home Loans June +1.8% +2.2% +2.7%

01:30 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks

05:45 Switzerland SECO Consumer Climate Quarter II -5 -2 -9

06:45 France Trade Balance, bln June -6.0 -5.0 -4.44

07:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves July 434.9 431.0 434.9

07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (MoM) July +0.1% -0.3% -0.4%

07:15 Switzerland Consumer Price Index (YoY) July -0.1% -0.1% 0.0%

09:30 United Kingdom BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks

09:30 United Kingdom BOE Inflation Letter Quarter III

10:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) June -0.8% Revised From -1.0% +0.3% +2.4%

10:00 Germany Industrial Production (YoY) June -1.0% -0.3% +2.0%

The euro rose sharply against the dollar, helped by positive data from Germany. The Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology has reported that up to the month of June, industrial production in Germany increased substantially, thereby exceeded the forecasts of most economists.

According to the report, the seasonally adjusted June industrial output rose 2.4% mom, recovering from a fall of 0.8%, which was recorded in the previous month, and revised downward. It is worth noting that according to the average estimates of experts industrial output had increased by only 0.3%, compared with the initial estimate of May at 1% decline.

In addition, it was reported that the volume of production, with the exception of the construction sector rose in June by 2.2% on a monthly basis. It should be noted that production in the construction sector was 1.6% more than in the previous month.

Compared with June 2012, industrial output adjusted for the number of working days, increased by 2%, after recording 1.2% decline in May, which was revised down from 1% reduction. Add that economists estimate that industrial production was down by 0.3% per annum.

The yen fell, departing from the six-week high against the background of which began today of the Bank of Japan. It is expected that the bankers will refrain from expanding existing monetary stimulus to devalue the yen this year against the dollar by 11%. Recall that in the present Central Bank of Japan monthly purchases of more than 7 trillion yen ($ 72 billion) of government bonds to two years to disperse percent inflation rate to 2%.

Additional impact on the market have the statements of the last Dallas Fed Richard Fisher, and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans. In particular, Richard Fisher, one of the chief critics of QE, said that the Fed is close to the beginning of the process of reducing the volume of quantitative easing, while Charles Evans said that does not rule out the possibility of narrowing the program of redemption of bonds on which month is spent $ 85 billion, already at the September meeting.

The British pound rose significantly against major currencies, which was associated with the application of the Bank of England, which revealed the plans for the future monetary policy of the central bank, noting that the key interest rate will remain at a record low of 0.5% until while the unemployment rate in the UK has fallen to 7%.

Add that also helped strengthen the currency of the Bank of England comments Mark Carney, who said that gross domestic product will not reach its pre-crisis level in the coming year. He also added that the Monetary Policy Committee will continue to pursue a policy change to secure economic growth.

The transition to economic thresholds is another innovation in the policies of the Bank of England. While the economy is showing signs of strengthening, the central bank said the new tactic is to reduce the risk of "premature" increase in short-term rates and help ensure recovery.

In addition, the monetary policy committee predicts that the most likely in the next 18-24 months, the consumer price inflation will be 0.5 percentage points higher than the 2% target, and can grow even stronger. Medium-term inflation expectations can no longer be called sustainable. The Bank of England said that if the threshold is breached, it will not mean an automatic increase in interest rates.

The central bank forecasts that economic growth will be 0.5 percent this quarter after expanding 0.6 percent in the previous three months. Gross domestic product in 2013 and 2014 will rise to 1.5 percent and 2.7 percent respectively.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose from $ 1.3264 to $ 1.3324

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.5205, after which rose to $ 1.5490

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose from Y96.75 to Y97.33

At 12:30 GMT Canada will report on changes in the volume of building permits issued in June. At 14:00 GMT Canada will present from Ivey PMI index for July. At 17:00 GMT the United States places the 10-year bonds. At 23:50 GMT Japan will report on the overall current account balance and the adjusted total current account surplus in June.

07.08.2013 12:00


Market Focus

  • The Bank of Japan decided by a 7-2 majority vote to hold the interest rate at -0.10%
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels from the previous week
  • Australian unemployment rate stable at 5.6% in June
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