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The dollar maintained a gain from yesterday against its major peers before data on U.S. employment and manufacturing that may influence market expectations for when the Federal Reserve will pare back its stimulus measures. The number of people in the U.S. continuing to receive jobless benefits fell by 89,000 to 3.03 million in the week ended July 13, economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast before today’s data. A second report will show that durable goods orders climbed 1.4 percent in June, a third-consecutive gain, according to the median estimate in a separate poll.
The Bloomberg Dollar Index yesterday advanced by the most in two weeks after a report showed sales of new U.S. homes rose to the highest level in five years. Purchases (NHSLTOT) of new homes in the U.S. rose 8.3 percent to an annualized pace of 497,000 homes in June, the Commerce Department said yesterday, beating the median estimate for a 1.7 percent advance. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told Congress last week that any reduction in stimulus would depend on the economy’s performance.
The euro held near a two-month high versus the yen before a survey forecast to show Germany’s business climate improved for a third month. In Germany, the Ifo institute’s business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, probably climbed to 106.1 from 105.9 in June, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. A measure of current conditions also gained, while a gauge of expectations was unchanged, the survey shows.
The New Zealand dollar rose against all its major peers after Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler said “removal of monetary stimulus will likely be needed in the future.” The central bank said the pace of future interest-rate increases will depend on the booming housing market’s impact on prices, while reiterating it will keep borrowing costs at a record-low 2.5 percent this year.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair rose above $ 1.3200
GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair rose above $ 1.5330
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y100.00
There is a full calendar on Thursday, with the German IfO survey and the UK second quarter GDP data the stand out events. The calendar gets underway at 0600GMT, with the release of the German May construction orders. Other data expected at 0800GMT, the EMU June M3 data. The main release for 0800GMT is the German July IFO business survey. Analysts see the Business survey coming in at 105.9, with current conditions at 109.6. Eurozone finance ministers will gather in Brussels from 1100GMT for the latest ECOFIN meeting, with the discussion likely to focus on the latest disbursement of funds to Greece. The Belgium July business Sentiment survey will cross the wires at 1300GMT. There is a full calendar on Thursday, with the German IfO survey and the UK second quarter GDP data the stand out events. At 0830GMT, the first reading of the UK's second quarter GDP data will be released, along with the May services index. A sharp rise in the pace of UK growth is expected in the second quarter.
Across the Atlantic, the calendar starts at 1200GMT, with the release of the US June revised Building Permits data. At 1230GMT, the Jobless Claims data for the July 20 week and the June Durable Goods data will be published. Initial jobless claims are expected to rise by 6,000 to 340,000 in the July 20 week after falling by 24,000 in the previous week. US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew is expected to make remarks on outstanding projects financed by multilateral development banks, due at 1245GMT. Back in Washington, at 1330GMT, the IMF's regular biweekly press briefing is expected. Then, at 1430GMT, the EIA Natural Gas Storage for the July 19 week are expected. The July Kansas City Fed Production data will be released at 1500GMT. Late US data is expected at 2030GMT, when the Money Supply data for the July 15 week will cross the wires.
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