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01:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes
The 17-nation euro remained higher against Japan’s currency before German data forecast to show investor sentiment in Europe’s biggest economy improved. In Germany, the ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim will probably say today its index of investor and analyst expectations increased to 40 this month from 38.5 in June, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. A reading of that level for the gauge, which aims to predict economic developments six months in advance, would be the highest since March.
Demand for the yen was limited before the release tomorrow of minutes from the Bank of Japan’s June 10-11 meeting when policy makers stuck with a pledge to expand the monetary base by as much as 70 trillion yen ($700 billion) per year.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is scheduled to testify on monetary policy this week. Bernanke is scheduled to deliver his semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress this week, starting tomorrow at the House Financial Services Committee.
U.S. industrial production probably rose 0.3 percent in June from the previous month, the biggest increase since February, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the Fed releases its figures today.
Australia’s dollar gained as investors pared bets the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates next month after the minutes of its last meeting released today said the recent drop in the currency may boost inflation. Australia’s inflation outlook, which is slightly higher because of a weaker currency, could still provide some scope for further easing, the minutes of RBA’s July 2 meeting showed. Swaps data compiled by Bloomberg show traders see a 54 percent chance of the central bank cutting its key interest rate next month, down from the 65 percent probability indicated yesterday.
EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3050/75
GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.5085/15
USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y99.60
There is a raft of UK data due at 0830GMT, with the release of the UK June consumer price index, the producer price index and the May house price index. A plunge in input prices in June 2012, when the index was originally reported to have fallen 2.3% on the year, hitting its lowest level since September 2009, will result in a spike higher this June. Analysts' median forecast is for an input price rise of 4.0% on the year this June, despite a 0.3% fall on the month. Output price inflation looks set to stay muted, with core output prices up only 1.1% on the year. Headline CPI is expected to have been driven higher in June. Petrol prices are set to have added some 0.2 percentage points to CPI on the year and food prices are also likely to have put upward pressure on it. The British Retail Consortium's June survey showed food price inflation rose to 2.7% on the year from 2.4% in May, despite overall shop price deflation of 0.2% on the year.
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