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11.07.2013 18:20

American focus: the euro declines

Euro fell after the day before the euro rose against the U.S. dollar by over 400 pips on the comments of Fed chairman Bernanke. Today events related to the euro, a bit, and the focus of the players was a weekly report on the U.S. labor market, the importance of which has increased since yesterday. Analysts forecast a modest drop in new applications for unemployment benefits. However, the report of the Ministry of Labor showed that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits, which are an indicator of layoffs for the week June 30 - July 6 rose by 16,000 and adjusted for seasonal variation was 360,000. Released report increased pressure on the single currency.

Japanese yen shows mixed results against the dollar amid the announcement of the results of the two-day meeting. Note that the Bank of Japan raised its assessment of the economic situation in the country, saying that the economy is starting to recover moderately. At the end of the two-day meeting of the central bank left its policy unchanged and stuck to the positive outlook for the 2015 financial year. Apparently, the Bank believes that a radical program of monetary easing policy, launched in April, will help stop the decline in prices, which is observed in Japan for over 15 years.

The Bank of Japan has confirmed its intention to continue the qualitative and the quantitative easing monetary policy to achieve the inflation target of 2%. At the same time, the Central Bank has revised its forecast for GDP and inflation for the current financial year. Now the growth of the Japanese economy in fiscal 2013, expects the Bank of Japan will be 2.8% versus 2.9% projected in April. Inflation forecast was revised to 0.6% from 0.7% previously anticipated. Expectations for the 2014 fiscal year were also deteriorated: GDP growth is now expected at 1.3% vs. 1.4% previously forecast.

Among the risks that the economy remains high degree of uncertainty related to the debt problems in Europe, the situation in developing economies and economies, strongly related to the export of raw materials, as well as growth in the U.S.. Also, the Central Bank has kept its target to increase the monetary base by 60-70 trillion yen per year. Regulatory decisions were not surprising and in line with the forecasts of most economists.

The Australian dollar declined significantly against the U.S. dollar, which has been associated with the release of unemployment data. According to information from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, at the end of June the unemployment rate in Australia increased, rising at the same time to the highest level since 2009 against the background of a marked increase in the number of people who were looking for work full-time. We also add that while there was an increase in the number of employees, which was due to the surge in part-time work, the number of employed full-time dropped.

According to the report, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose in June to a level of 5.7 percent, compared to the upwardly revised figure for May of 5.6 percent (originally reported on the index at the level of 5.5%). Note that the June reading was the highest since September 2009. The data also showed that the number of unemployed increased by 23,700 in May and June, while reaching the level of 709 300 people.

Market Focus

  • The Bank of Japan decided by a 7-2 majority vote to hold the interest rate at -0.10%
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels from the previous week
  • Australian unemployment rate stable at 5.6% in June
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