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08.07.2013 06:25

Asian session: The Dollar Index rose

01:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) June -2.4% -1.8%


The Dollar Index rose to its highest in three years before Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke speaks this week amid speculation signs of economic growth will impel the central bank to slow stimulus.

The greenback touched a five-week high versus the yen ahead of minutes of the Fed’s June 18-19 meeting where Bernanke said policy makers may begin slowing bond purchases this year. Data last week showed U.S. employers added more jobs than economists estimated. The U.S. Labor Department reported on July 5 that payrolls increased by 195,000 in June for a second-straight month. A Bloomberg News survey of economists forecast a gain of 165,000 after a previously reported 175,000 rise in May. The jobless rate stayed at 7.6 percent.

The euro held a two-day decline before European Central Bank President Mario Draghi speaks in Brussels today and Germany releases data on industrial production. In Europe, Draghi is due to speak in Brussels today after he made an unprecedented pledge last week to keep interest rates low for an extended period. The ECB’s monetary policy stance will “remain accommodative” for as long as needed to spur growth, he said July 4 after a policy meeting.

Industrial production in Germany probably fell 0.5 percent in May from the previous month, when it gained 1.8 percent, according to the median estimate of economists in surveyed by Bloomberg before the data today.


EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.2810/30

GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.4855/85

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair rose to Y101.55


This week's US calendar is light on data, with the latest FOMC minutes likely to be the main event. There is a fuller US data calendar, although the main releases are expected later in the week. Monday's calendar kicks off at 0600GMT with the release of the German May trade balance. Analysts see the balance coming in at E17.8 billion. At 0630GMT, the French June Ban of France business survey will be published at 0630GMT. At 0800GMT, ECB Governing Councilmember Ewald Nowotny will give a press conference on the Financial Stability Report, in Vienna. German May industrial output numbers will cross the wires at 1000GMT. Economist estimates see both the M/M and Y/Y numbers down 0.5%. Also at 1000GMT, the EMU May OECD leading indicator is expected. Across the Atlantic, the calendar gets underway at 1230GMT with the release of the Canadian May Building permits data. In the US, at 1400GMT, the June Employment Trends Index data will cross the wires. At 1900GMT, the May consumer credit numbers will be released. Estimates see the number coming in at $12.5 bn.

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