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05.07.2013 06:07

Asian session: The greenback rose

05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index May 99.0 101.2 110.5

05:00 Japan Coincident Index May 95.3 96.2 105.9

The greenback rose toward its strongest in more than a month against the yen, euro and pound while the Dollar Index touched a five-week high amid speculation improvement in the U.S. economy will prompt the Federal Reserve to curb stimulus. The U.S. Labor Department will probably say today companies added 165,000 positions last month after increasing them by 175,000 in May, according to the median estimate by economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. A separate poll predicted the jobless rate fell to 7.5 percent from 7.6 percent in the previous period.

The euro and pound slid after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney signaled they will keep borrowing costs at record lows. Draghi said yesterday in Frankfurt the central bank planned to keep the euro area’s main refinancing rate at a record-low 0.5 percent or even lower for an “extended period” and that it was injecting a “downward bias in interest rates for the foreseeable future.” The BOE said in a statement yesterday in London the “implied rise in the expected future path of bank rate was not warranted by the recent developments in the domestic economy” after officials left the bank’s benchmark rate and bond-purchase program unchanged. The policy meeting was the first one led by Carney.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.2885

GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.5025

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair rose to Y100.45

The US market returns from the Independence Day holiday and jumps straight back into the fray with the monthly employment report. There is also expected on the Continent and comments from ECB officials in the wake of the "forward guidance" offered by President Draghi at the Thursday meeting. Data kicks off at at 0645GMT, when the May French trade data will be published. From 0730GMT, Germany's upper house debates and votes on the 2013 supplementary federal budget. Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble will likely speak at some point in the debate. At 1000GMT, German May manufacturing orders data is set for release. Factory orders are seen up 1.2% on the month, higher by 0.1% on year. ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure will deliver a speech to the Amundi World Investment Forum, in Paris at 1030GMT. At 1100GMT, ECB Governing Council Member Erkki Liikanen and EU Economics and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn are due to speak in Mikkeli, Finland. The main release comes at 1230GMT, when the US Jun Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment and average earnings numbers will cross the wires. Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to rise by 160,000 in June after a larger-than-expected 175,000 increase in May. The unemployment rate is expected to fall back to 7.5% after rising to 7.6% in May. Hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.2%, while the average workweek is expected to hold steady at 34.5 hours. Late US data sees the release of the June Treasury STRIPS data at 1900GMT and the Money Supply (M2) numbers for the June 24 week at 2030GMT.

Market Focus

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  • German private sector output growth slowed for the second month running in July
  • ECB's Mersch says as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that uncoventional policies will remain necessary
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