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28.06.2013 12:15

European session: Japanese yen continued its decline


01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m May +0.3% +0.3% +0.3%

01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y May +3.1% +2.9% +3.1%

05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y May +5.8% +6.3% +14.5%

06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index June +0.4% +0.4% +0.3%

06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y June +1.1% +2.1% +1.9%

06:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted May -0.4% +0.4% +0.8%

06:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y May +1.8% +0.2% +0.4%

06:45 France Consumer spending May -0.3% 0.0% +0.5%

06:45 France Consumer spending, y/y May +0.2% +0.3% +0.6%

07:00 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator June 1.10 1.21 1.16

10:00 Eurozone EU Economic Summit

12:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Preliminary) June +0.4% 0.0% +0.1%

12:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Preliminary) June +1.5% +1.7% +1.9%

European currency rose against the dollar after the EU leaders at their summit in Brussels to agree on the seven-year budget for the community. All 27 EU member states supported the document, which has yet to be definitively approve the European Parliament.

Scheduled for 2014-2020. expenses of 960 billion euros mean a real reduction of the budget. Despite this, EU leaders agreed to speed up the allocation of resources to overcome youth unemployment. In particular, in the next two years, six billion euros will be earmarked for the creation of jobs, education and training for young people. The European Union is now almost a quarter of the population aged 18 to 25 years old are unemployed. In Greece and Spain, the situation is even more difficult - more than half of young people are unemployed.

We also add that the growth of the euro helped the data for Germany, which showed that up to May, German retail sales were better than expected, as consumers returned to stores after being bypassed by their side because of the cold and rainy weather.

According to the report, retail sales in May rose 0.8% in April, after three consecutive months of decline, exceeding economists' forecasts at 0.3%. The data came out, adjusted for inflation, and take into account calendar effects. It should be noted that sales growth is based on a robust labor market and the prospects for improving consumer confidence and household spending. Recall that the German unemployment fell in June to 12,000 in the month, seasonally adjusted, reducing unemployment to its lowest level since December 2012. The index of consumer sentiment, meanwhile, is close to a six-month high.

In addition, data released today showed that German retail sales in May rose with inflation at 0.4% per annum, as households buy food and drinks before the bank holiday. German retail sales in January-May increased by 0.2% per annum.

Value of the pound fell against the dollar, as the data from the Nationwide Agency showed that in June house prices in Britain rose again, showing at the same time increasing the fastest pace in more than two and a half years as mortgages have become more accessible and less expensive.

According to the report, the monthly house price index rose in June by 0.3%, while the annual growth rate of 1.9%, which was the sharpest increase since September 2010. These achievements were below the 0.4% monthly rise and a 2.1% year-on-year increase that economists expected.

Recall that in May, house prices rose by 0.4% compared to the previous month and 1.1% for the year.

"A number of factors may be responsible for the recent acceleration" - said Robert Gardner, listing the modest gains in employment, reduction of interest rates on mortgage loans as a result of the government scheme to finance lending, and improve the overall economy.

"At the same time, there are few signs that the supply of housing is improving significantly," said Gardner. The lack of new buildings are likely to keep prices elevated, while government programs to support lending to remain in place, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the International Monetary Fund said this in a recent assessment of the UK economy.

The Australian dollar fell and almost ready to fix your the biggest quarterly decline since 2008, ahead of a meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Economists are reminded that the meeting will take place on July 2 RBA's monetary policy.

At the June meeting, the central bank left interest rates unchanged at 2.75%, confirming that "the current state of monetary policy continues to meet the situation." It has since been published many weak data, and analysts now expect the RBA will lower the interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, and will also retain a bias towards further easing. Economists add that this year, the Central Bank will lower borrowing costs one more time (October or November) in view of the prospects of further weakening of the economy. Some experts argue that the recent political uncertainty and the upcoming elections increase the likelihood that in the near future, the Bank will not make any changes in the current course of monetary policy. Nomura economists write, "then how can we make the argument in the aspect of what the central bank does not want to be influenced by the developments on the political front, we believe that the RBA understands the need for additional stimulus at the moment, so the authorities are unlikely to wait three months and will support the economy as early as next week. "

The yen fell against all of its major counterparts amid rising stock markets in Asia, which reduces the demand for foreign exchange asylum. So Chinese stocks rose for the first time last eight days after the People's Bank of China pledged to maintain the stability of the money market in the region. Reducing the yen contributed to the published data on industrial production. The May figure increased by 2%, whereas in the previous month was an increase of only 0.9%. It is worth noting that economists had forecast a 0.2% rise

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3079

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.5224

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y99.15

At 12:30 GMT Canada will report on changes in the volume of GDP for April, and will release an index of commodity prices for May. At 13:45 GMT the United States will present the Chicago PMI index for June, and 13:55 GMT - an indicator of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan in June.

Market Focus

  • The eurozone started the third quarter on a solid footing, according to PMI survey data
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • German private sector output growth slowed for the second month running in July
  • ECB's Mersch says as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that uncoventional policies will remain necessary
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