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27.06.2013 12:15

European session: the British Pound declined significantly


01:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence June 41.8 50.1

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m April -0.3% +0.5% +0.4%

06:45 France Consumer confidence June 79 80 78

07:55 Germany Unemployment Change June 21 6 -12

07:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. June 6.9% 6.9% 6.8%

08:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y May +3.2% +2.9% +2.9%

08:30 United Kingdom Current account, bln Quarter I -14.0 -11.8 -14.5

08:30 United Kingdom GDP, q/q (Finally) Quarter I +0.3% +0.3% +0.3%

08:30 United Kingdom GDP, y/y Quarter I +0.6% +0.6% +0.3%

09:00 Eurozone Business climate indicator June -0.76 -0.65 -0.68

09:00 Eurozone Economic sentiment index June 89.4 90.4 91.3

09:00 Eurozone Industrial confidence June -13.0 -12.3 -18.8

10:00 Eurozone EU Economic Summit June

The euro exchange rate recovered previously lost ground against the dollar, which has been associated with the publication of data that supported the single currency, as well as expectations of U.S. output reports. Expected to publish data on the state personal income and spending and the number of U.S. citizens reported new claims for unemployment benefits. According to the median forecast of economists amount of personal spending in the U.S. will grow up in May by 0.3%, the fastest pace in the last three months. A number of requests for unemployment benefits fall by 9,000 to 345,000 in the week ended June 22.

It should be noted that the report from the European Commission showed that in June, the index of sentiment in the economy increased markedly, thereby exceeded the forecasts of experts, and reaching the highest level since May 2012.

According to a report in the current month index of sentiment in the economy, which integrates research businesses and consumers across the euro zone, rose to 91.3, up from 89.5 in May. Economists say the index, as well as recent surveys of purchasing managers suggest that the recession in the euro zone may slow down in the second quarter. If this trend will continue, it will help to increase consumer spending and companies, as well as be able to contribute to a return to growth at the end of this year. However, it is worth noting that the index of sentiment in the economy remains below the average of 100.00 since 1990.

The European Commission also reported that the increase in confidence has been allocated for the five largest economies of the eurozone - the largest increase was recorded in Spain and Italy. However, confidence fell in Greece, Austria and Slovakia.

We add that the pressure on the dollar strengthened after the unexpected revision of estimates of U.S. GDP for the 1st Quarter in the direction of the sharp decline. Fell short of forecast data for the 1st quarter at least temporarily reassured investors that the Fed may consider delaying reductions in asset purchases under the program of QE.

Value of the pound fell sharply against the U.S. dollar, against the background of the fact that the final data, which were presented by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the British economy could avoid a recession in the first quarter, while confirming the initial estimates.

According to the report, in the first three months of this year, gross domestic product grew by 0.3%, while changing the 0.2% decline that was recorded in the fourth quarter of last year. It should be noted that the last value found in accordance with the forecasts of experts.

Meanwhile, it was revealed that, compared with the first quarter of 2012 the economy grew by 0.3%, after zero growth in the previous quarter, which was a surprise to many experts, as they were waiting for confirmation of the initial assessment - at the level of 0.6 %.

The Office for National Statistics also reported that first-quarter GDP is estimated to have been 3.9% lower than before the peak of the financial crisis peak in the first quarter of 2008.

In addition, it was noted that a review of past GDP figures showed that the economy has not recorded double-dip recession in 2012. In the ONS today announced that in the first quarter of 2012, the economy showed zero increase, instead of the earlier estimate of 0.1% contraction, so that there were no two consecutive quarterly declines that define a recession.

The Australian dollar is rising for the fifth consecutive day after Kevin Rudd won the election and became the new Prime Minister of Australia. As Prime Minister Rudd was replaced by Julia Gillard, who headed the government since 2010. Gillard has resigned after Wednesday, June 26, lost the election of a Labour party in power in Australia.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rebounded from $ 1.3010 to $ 1.3044

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.5261

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y98.36

At 12:30 GMT the U.S. will release the main index for personal consumption expenditures index-deflator of personal consumption expenditures, and also announced a change in the level of spending for May. At 14:00 GMT the U.S. will report on changes in the volume of pending home sales for May. At 22:45 GMT New Zealand will release data on changes in the volume of building permits issued in May. At 23:01 GMT Britain will present indicator of consumer confidence from the GfK in June. At 23:30 GMT Japan will announce to the change in the level of household spending in May, and will release the consumer price index, the preliminary data on industrial production, and changes in the volume of retail sales for May.

27.06.2013 12:00


Market Focus

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  • ECB's Mersch says as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that uncoventional policies will remain necessary
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