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24.06.2013 12:15

European session: the euro exchange rate against the dollar holds tight


08:00 Germany IFO - Business Climate June 105.7 106.0 105.9

08:00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment June 110.0 109.6 109.4

08:00 Germany IFO - Expectations June 101.6 102.0 102.5

The euro exchange rate fell slightly against the dollar, while retreating from session highs, as the attention of many market participants moved to the U.S. data. Note that orders for durable goods and consumer confidence index from the Conference Board - is a major U.S. reports this week, and the overall risks are downward, although the main index of orders may be higher than expected on the background of aircraft orders.

More important may be the performances by the Fed, starting with today's speech Fisher.

It is also worth noting that partially influenced the course of trade data for Germany. As it became known that the business sentiment in Germany in June improved, raising hopes for the restoration of sentiment among Europe's largest trading partners.

The business confidence index rose a second straight month to 105.9 in June from 105.7 in May, being above its long term average 101 and above expectations of economists.

Increasing Ifo index gave relief as uncertain business prospects and reduce exports to the Evrobloka affected by the recession have been a deterrent to corporate investments during the year. Business expectations for the next six months improved to 102.5 in June from 101.6 in May. But about 7,000 managers participating in the monthly Ifo survey were less satisfied with their current business situation sub-index fell to 109.4 from 110.0 in the previous month.

Ifo study offers hope that business sentiment also restore the position of the major European trading partners, particularly France and Italy.

The Japanese yen rose against the dollar, although it retreated from earlier reached the maximum values ​​that are likely to be associated with a convincing victory for Japan's ruling coalition in local elections on Sunday, the result of which showed strong support economic recovery policies of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Resounding victory in the municipal elections in Tokyo will win the election administration Abe next month in the upper house of parliament. This result will allow the Prime Minister to continue monetary policy, begun in December, on assuming office, which led to a rapid weakening of the yen. In case of victory of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party of Japan and its coalition partners in the elections to the upper house of parliament in July, Abe will have full control of both houses of parliament, which will easily take the necessary legislation to implement the political program of the Prime Minister, including reform the regulatory framework. Experts point out that the news somewhat positive, since winning elections for the upper house will facilitate the government to implement its policies.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair is trading in the range of $ 1.3077-$ 1.3125

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.5340

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y97.72

At 13:00 GMT Belgium will release the index business sentiment for June. At 16:30 GMT the United States in a speech made by a member of the Committee on the Federal Open Market R. Fisher.

24.06.2013 12:00


Market Focus

  • The eurozone started the third quarter on a solid footing, according to PMI survey data
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • German private sector output growth slowed for the second month running in July
  • ECB's Mersch says as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that uncoventional policies will remain necessary
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