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20.06.2013 06:23

Asian session: The dollar rose for a second day versus the euro

01:30 Australia RBA Bulletin Quarter II

01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Preliminary) June 49.2 49.4 48.3


The dollar rose for a second day versus the euro before U.S. housing and manufacturing data that may add to the case for reduced monetary stimulus as flagged yesterday by the Federal Reserve. Purchases in the U.S. of previously owned houses probably climbed 0.6 percent from a month earlier to a 5 million annualized rate in May, the strongest since November 2009, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of data from the National Association of Realtors today. The Dollar Index was near a one-week high after Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank could reduce its bond buying this year and end it in 2014 if the economy achieves sustainable growth. The Federal Open Market Committee yesterday left unchanged the monthly pace of bond purchases unchanged at $85 billion, saying that "downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market" have diminished. Policy makers raised their growth forecasts for next year to a range of 3 percent to 3.5 percent and reduced their outlook for unemployment to as low as 6.5 percent.

The yen strengthened versus a majority of its peers as Asian stocks extended a global decline, boosting demand for the currency as a haven.

The Aussie dropped after HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics said the preliminary reading of their Purchasing Managers' Index for China's manufacturing was at 48.3 in June. That compares with the 49.1 estimated by economists and below the 50 level that indicates expansion.


EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell below $ 1.3270

GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell below $ 1.5450

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair rose below Y97.00


With the FOMC meeting and Fed Chair Bernanke's press conference behind us, focus again turns to the calendar and Thursday sees a slew of data on both sides of the Atlantic. The calendar gets underway at 0600GMT, with the release of the German May PPI numbers. Expectations are for a fall of 0.1% on month and rising 0.3% on year. Also at 0600GMT, the German FinMin will publish its monthly fiscal and economic report. Today also sees the release of flash euro area state and combined PMI data for June, starting with the French numbers at 0658GMT. Other main releases see German PMIs at 0738GMT and the combined Euro area numbers at 0758GMT. Expectations are for all the main readings to edge higher from the May levels. At 0730GMT, the latest SNB monetary policy decision is expected, along with the Financial Stability report. No change is expected in policy. Germany Bundesbank Board member Andreas Dombret will deliver a speech on debt crisis at 0750GMT in Frankfurt. There is more central bank activity at 0800GMT, when the Norges Bank's latest policy decision will be released. No change is expected in policy, with rates seen held at 1.5%. At 0800GMT, the Italian industrial orders numbers for April will cross the wires.

Market Focus

  • The Bank of Japan decided by a 7-2 majority vote to hold the interest rate at -0.10%
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels from the previous week
  • Australian unemployment rate stable at 5.6% in June
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