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18.06.2013 06:03

Asian session: The yen declined

01:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes June

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Finally) April +1.7% +1.7% +0.9%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Finally) April -2.3% -2.3% -3.4%


The yen declined for a second day against the dollar before the Federal Reserve starts a two-day meeting today amid speculation about when the central bank will slow its quantitative easing program of bond purchases. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said on May 22 the central bank could reduce its monthly purchases of $45 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities if the employment outlook shows sustained improvement.

The yen weakened against most of its major peers after a Bank of Japan report showed its current-account balance will rise to a record amid unprecedented monetary stimulus. The central bank estimated today that its current-account balance, a measure of financial firms' deposits at the central bank, will rise to a record 75.5 trillion yen.

Demand for the greenback was supported before U.S. reports today that may show inflation is picking up and the housing market is improving. The U.S. consumer-price index probably rose 0.2 percent in May from a month earlier, economists forecast in a Bloomberg News survey before the release of Labor Department figures today. The gauge dropped 0.4 percent in April, the most since December 2008. A separate report from the Commerce Department is likely to show that housing starts climbed 11.4 percent last month from April to a 950,000 annualized rate.

The euro was near an almost four-month high before German data forecast to show investor confidence advanced. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim is scheduled to release the latest reading of its index of investor and analyst expectations in Germany. The gauge, which aims to predict economic developments six months in advance, probably rose to 38.1 in June, the highest in three months, from 36.4 in May, a Bloomberg poll of economists shows.


EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell fell to $ 1.3345

GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell fell below $ 1.5700

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair rose to Y94.95


There are data releases on both sides of the Atlantic Tuesday and ECB President Mario Draghi speaks. However, the main focus for traders is still on the Fed, with the latest policy announcement and press briefing expected on Wednesday. The European calendar gets underway at 0600GFMT, with the release of the May ACEA new car registrations for the euro area. At the same time, ECB President Mario Draghi IS SET to speak at A Bank of Israel Conference in Jerusalem. The main German release comes at 0900GMT, with the release of the June ZEW survey. The market is looking for a Current situation reading of 9.5, up from 8.9 in May. The economic sentiment indicator is seen rising to 38.1. The latest UK inflation data is expected at 0830GMT, with PPI, CPI and RPI all set for release. Data are expected to show that consumer price inflation drifted higher in May after having fallen sharply in April. Lower petrol prices helped bring down the CPI rate in April but they moved higher in May as oil prices rose off their April lows. Producer input prices are likely to have fallen again, reflecting the modest rise in sterling plus falls in the cost of a range of non-oil commodities. Also expected at the same time is the latest April House Price Index. The G8 leaders summit continues in Northern Ireland, ending later today, with expectations for today's talks to focus on tax avoidance issues.

Market Focus

  • The Bank of Japan decided by a 7-2 majority vote to hold the interest rate at -0.10%
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels from the previous week
  • Australian unemployment rate stable at 5.6% in June
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