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14.06.2013 12:15

European session: the U.S. currency has increased markedly

Data

09:00 Eurozone Employment Change Quarter I -0.3% -0.2% -0.5%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI May -0.1% +0.1% +0.1%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y (Finally) May +1.4% +1.4% +1.4%

09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI ex EFAT, Y/Y May +1.2% +1.2% +1.2%

09:50 United Kingdom MPC Member McCafferty Speaks


Euro fell against the dollar, which in part helped by data evrozone.Soglasno report, annualized inflation rate, which is calculated in accordance with the harmonized index of consumer prices rose in May by 1.4%, compared with 1.2% in April, which was in line with preliminary estimates and forecasts of experts. We also recall that in March inflation rate was 1.7%.

The data showed that at the head of the inflation stood increase in the cost of fruit, vegetables and electricity. Meanwhile, we note that the largest contribution to the decrease was recorded by the price of fuel for transport, telecommunications and health care.

On a monthly basis, the harmonized index of consumer prices rose 0.1% in May, which was also in line with the preliminary estimates and forecasts of experts.

The statistical agency also reported that inflation in the European Union (EU) in May was 1.6% per annum, compared to 1.4% per annum, recorded in April. In monthly terms, inflation in these countries increased by 0.1%.

The lowest rates were observed in Greece, Latvia and Cyprus, while in Romania, Estonia and the Netherlands recorded the highest rate.

In addition, we note that core inflation in the currency bloc, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco rose in May to 1.2% from 1% in April. The result corresponded to preliminary estimates.

The cost of the U.S. dollar was higher against the pound, which was associated with the expectations of the output of U.S. CPI data. It should be noted that inflationary pressures have eased over the past year. The index of producer prices fell in April by 0.7%, resulting in an annual rate of wholesale inflation fell to 0.6%. At the head of this slowdown stood fall in energy prices, which fell in April by 2.1%. Excluding food and energy, prices rose only slightly in recent months and by 1.7 percent from April of last year. Add that energy prices have stabilized over the past month, and price pressures remain subdued. Recent data on the purchasing managers' index for May showed that the price components or weakened or remained almost unchanged. Meanwhile, it is worth noting that commodity prices have continued to decline in May.

The yen rose against the dollar after the publication of the minutes of the Bank of Japan. It should be noted that the members of the Board of the Bank of Japan monetary policy saw signs that the Japanese economy is finally beginning to move in the direction of growth. On the issue of termination of deflation that has plagued Japan for more than 15 years, some of the board members have admitted that it may be difficult to reach a new target for CPI at 2 percent.

The protocol also states that the Japanese economy began to recover. The volume of exports had ceased to decline, as foreign economies are trying to get out of the deceleration phase, which continues from last year, and gradually coming to an end.

Recall that at its last meeting, the Bank of Japan left unchanged the interest rate level - at the level of 0-0,10 percent. He also agreed to carry out operations in the money market, which will help expand the monetary base in annual terms by about 60 - 70 trillion yen. In addition, the Bank of Japan said it would continue to buy Japanese government bonds, so that the amount of debt will increase by an annual rate of up to 50 trillion. yen. that corresponds to the plan. Purchases of government bonds, are expected to put downward pressure on interest rates across the yield curve.

Meanwhile, it is worth noting that one of the members of the committee said the bank should limit its mitigation measures to two years in order to avoid financial imbalances that may arise as a result of stimulation. In addition, members of the committee warned, however, that remains considerable uncertainty and downside risks to the economy - in particular, from abroad.


EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3302

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.5613

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair is trading in the range of Y94.67-Y95.38


At 12:30 GMT Canada will announce the change in our manufacturing sales for April. Also this time, the U.S. producer price index will be released and the producer price index excluding prices for food and energy for May, as well as data on the balance of the current account of balance of payments for the 1st quarter. At 13:15 GMT the U.S. will release the capacity utilization rate in May, and will announce the change in the volume of industrial production in May. At 13:55 GMT the U.S. consumer sentiment index will be released from the University of Michigan in June.

14.06.2013 12:00

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