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07.06.2013 06:24

Asian session: The yen extended its biggest gain in three years


The yen extended its biggest gain in three years after Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said he wouldn't intervene to weaken the currency.

The dollar held near its lowest in more than three months versus the euro before payrolls data in the U.S. that will offer guidance on whether the Federal Reserve can pursue an early exit to monetary stimulus that tends to debase the currency. In the U.S., the Labor Department will probably say today the economy added 163,000 jobs in May, while the jobless rate held unchanged at 7.5 percent, according to median forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. That will follow June 5 figures from ADP that U.S. companies boosted employment by 135,000 workers last month, trailing analyst estimates.

The Aussie dollar fell against its 16 most-traded peers before Chinese data tomorrow forecast to show growth in imports slowed to the least in three months, dimming the demand outlook for commodities. Imports (CNFRIMPY) grew 6.6 percent in May compared with a year earlier, according to a poll of economists. Imports gained 16.8 percent in April.



EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair was trading around $ 1.3075/95

GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.5575-15

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y95.60


The median forecast of all respondents in the MNI US Employment Report Survey was for a payroll number of 160,000 - very close to the MNI economist survey median forecast of 165,000 The median forecast for private payrolls was also just under the MNI economist survey median forecast at 170,000 compared to 177,000 There was a strong agreement across respondents that the jobless rate would remain at 7.5%. Within roles, brokers and economists were generally more optimistic for a higher payroll figure than traders. Within asset class, respondents whose main asset class was FX were also more optimistic than those in Fixed Income. Regarding the "question of the day" which we asked amid a background of current taper-on/taper-off and risk-on/risk-off sentiment, where strong data has in the past been bullish for stocks, but now seen as increased chances the Fed may to start to taper its asset purchases under its QE programme: "What do you think would be the main market impact from a strong payrolls report?" 74% of all respondents and 70% of all Fixed Income respondents said the main market impact would be for higher bond yields.

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