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03.06.2013 12:15

European session: the euro exchange rate rose slightly


00:00 New Zealand Bank holiday

00:30 Australia MI Inflation Gauge, m/m May -0.5% +0.2%

00:30 Australia MI Inflation Gauge, y/y May +2.7% +2.2%

01:00 China Non-Manufacturing PMI May 54.5 54.3

01:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) April -0.4% +0.3% +0.2%

01:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y April +3.2% +3.1%

01:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) May -1.3% -2.4%

01:30 Australia Company Operating Profits Quarter I -1.0% +1.6% +3.0%

01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Finally) May 49.6 49.6 49.2

01:50 U.S. FOMC Member Yellen Speaks

06:30 Australia RBA Commodity prices, y/y May -6.5% -8.6%

07:30 Switzerland Manufacturing PMI May 50.2 50.9 52.2

07:50 France Manufacturing PMI (Finally) May 45.5 45.5 46.4

07:55 Germany Manufacturing PMI (Finally) May 49.0 49.0 49.4

08:00 Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Finally) May 47.8 47.8 48.3

08:30 United Kingdom Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing May 49.8 50.3 51.3

The euro exchange rate fell back from the peak reached against the dollar, which contributed to the positive data on PMI. As the results of recent studies that have been presented Markit Economics, the decline in production in the euro area continued in the last month, but at a slower pace than originally anticipated. According to a report by the end of May the final month of the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector rose to 48.3 compared to 46.7 in April, reaching with a 15-month high. It is worth noting that, according to the average forecast of most experts, the value of this index was to remain unchanged from the initial estimate at 47.8. In addition, the data showed that all the sub-indices, except for the timing of deliveries of raw materials, since the last survey have improved, being higher than the preliminary estimate.

Meanwhile, we note that the data for May showed a decline of decline in all the countries studied, indicating that improvements in the conditions of production. Add that Spain and Greece, which are most affected by the debt crisis in the region showed the smallest decline over the past two years. In Germany, there is activity in the manufacturing sector showed the slowest rate of decline since February of this year, as the number of new orders was restored after the deterioration in the previous two months. The final index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, seasonally adjusted rose to 49.4 from 48.1 in April. It was expected that the rate will be unchanged from the preliminary estimate at 49.0. We add that the negative contribution from employment, inventories and delivery times kept PMI below the neutral mark of 50, which is fixed for the third consecutive month.

Value of the pound against the dollar has increased significantly, which was associated with the publication of the British data. As the results of recent studies that have been published Markit Economics, and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Logistics (CIPS), the results of last month the PMI for the manufacturing sector increased sharply, reaching thus the highest level in the past 14 months, as strong domestic market has led to a rapid increase in production and new orders.

According to the report, the seasonally adjusted purchasing managers' index rose to a level of 51.3, which is a 14-month high, from a revised April at around 50.2. It should be noted that, according to experts active secondary code should rise to the level was 50.1, compared with 49.8, which was originally reported for the previous month. Recall that Indicator values ​​above 50 indicate growth while falling below indicates contraction. We add that this figure shows the growth for the second consecutive month. Studies have shown that the domestic market was a major factor in the inflow of new orders, although the increase in new export orders also contributed to a modest improvement.

It was also reported industrial production increased in all sub-sectors within a month, which stood at the head of an increase in production of consumer, intermediate and capital goods. New orders received by the British producers of goods showed the third monthly increase in a row under the guidance of a significant improvement in the home market. The data also showed that the company increased the number of the person that was the first time in four months, in line with the rise in production. Input prices fell, which was the second monthly decline in a row, while product prices increased again.

The Australian dollar rose, departing from the minimum levels today after Chinese PMI PMI in the manufacturing sector of the economy of the country for May 2013 reached 50.8, while in April the figure was 50.6. This was reported by the China Association of logistics and procurement.

For eight consecutive months, industrial production in China PMI steady at 50%. Recall that China is the largest trading partner of Australia.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair dropped rose to $ 1.3043, but then fell to $ 1.2990

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.5288

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y100.00, then rose to Y100.51

At 14:00 GMT the United States will publish the ISM manufacturing index for May. At 23:01 GMT UK release BRC Retail Sales Monitor for May. At 23:50 GMT Japan will publish the change in the monetary base in May.

03.06.2013 12:00


Market Focus

  • The Bank of Japan decided by a 7-2 majority vote to hold the interest rate at -0.10%
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels from the previous week
  • Australian unemployment rate stable at 5.6% in June
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