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29.05.2013 12:15

European session: the euro exchange rate has increased significantly


00:00 Japan BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks

00:30 Australia Leading Index March +0.6% +0.2%

01:00 Australia HIA New Home Sales, m/m April +4.2% +3.9%

01:30 Australia Construction Work Done Quarter I -0.1% +1.1% -2.0%

06:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator April 1.25 1.46

07:55 Germany Unemployment Change May 6 4 21

07:55 Germany Unemployment Rate s.a. May 6.9% 6.9% 6.9%

08:00 Eurozone M3 money supply, adjusted y/y April +2.6% +2.9% +3.2%

09:00 Eurozone OECD Economic Outlook May

09:30 United Kingdom MPC Member Bean Speaks

10:00 United Kingdom CBI retail sales volume balance May -1 4 -11

12:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Preliminary) May -0.5% +0.2% +0.4%

12:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Preliminary) May +1.2% +1.3% +1.5%

The euro exchange rate has risen sharply against the U.S. dollar today as the published data on lending in the euro area, pointed to the steady growth in deposits and a weak lending in the corporate sector, which supports a program of asset purchases. It is worth noting that in the three months to April, the growth rate of the M3 money aggregate amounted to 3% by repeating the March result. Analysts were expecting a slight slowdown to 2.9%. The annual equivalent rate M3 grew by 3.2% against 2.6% the previous result and the forecast of 2.9%. The volume of private lending fell by 0.9% y / y vs. -0.7% of the previous month, confirming the prediction.

Add that did not prevent the growth of the euro even weak data on Germany. According to the report, the seasonally adjusted number of unemployed rose this month to 21,000 since April. It is also worth noting that according to the average forecasts of experts, the number of unemployed would grow by 4,000 people, compared with an increase of 6000 (revised in 4000), which were recorded in the last month.

The Agency for Labour noted that the labor market in Germany remains "solid" despite the difficult economic background, and the spring of this year, has not led to the revival of the normal labor market. Neglecting seasonal effects, the total number of unemployed fell in May by 83,000, reaching 2,973,000 at the same level.

In addition, the report showed that the unadjusted unemployment rate was at 6.8% from 7.1% in April. The unemployment rate for movements remained unchanged at 6.9% in May. Nevertheless, the German labor market is strong, despite the deep recession in the euro area, where the unemployment rate in March was an average of 12.1%.

The Australian dollar rose against the U.S. dollar, thus restoring all of the losses incurred in early trading. Partly influenced by the dynamics of trading information that the International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for economic growth in China in 2013 to the level of 7.75 percent, compared with the initial estimate of 8 per cent .. In the report of the organization stated that the reason for the decline was forecast unstable situation in the world economy and the decline in demand for Chinese goods exports. But if the slowdown in China's economy is stronger than forecast in the IMF, the IMF experts advise Beijing to stimulate GDP growth tax cuts. Recall that another leading international financial institution - the World Bank - predicts China's growth in 2013 at 8.3 percent. Earlier, JP Morgan Chase Bank has lowered the forecast for economic growth in China in 2013 to 7.8 percent, after the country's GDP growth in the quarter, I did not meet the expectations of experts.

The Japanese currency rose against the U.S. dollar, which helped the comments of the Bank of Japan Kuroda, who noted that the global economy is still reeling from the effects of the global financial crisis that began five years ago. Kuroda also warned that no country is immune from the repetition of the crisis in the future. "Even if we were able to ascertain the stability of the financial system at the current time, it is unlikely to last forever. Financial crisis could break out beyond the horizon of our forecasts," - said Kuroda. In his view, the creation of a new financial system "is not easy" because no economy can not simultaneously maintain the mobility of capital and financial stability, while carrying out the task of financial policy. "I am convinced, serious problems related to the crisis, will give us new ideas and help create a new and better world" - said Kuroda.

Recall that the current Bank of Japan holds sverhstimuliruyuschuyu program, under which buys bonds by more than 7 trillion yen a month. In this case, the regulator seeks to expand the monetary base. It is expected that the figure will rise to 60-70 trillion yen per year.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.2975

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.5118

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell Y100.95

At 14:00 GMT we will know the decision of the Bank of Canada Interest Rate for May. At 14:00 GMT in Canada will cover the application of the Bank of Canada. At 17:00 GMT the U.S. FOMC member Eric Rosengren will speak. At 22:45 GMT New Zealand will announce the change in the volume of building permits issued in April.

Market Focus

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