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14.05.2013 12:15

European session: the dollar has increased significantly


06:00 Germany CPI, m/m (Finally) April -0.5% -0.5% -0.5%

06:00 Germany CPI, y/y (Finally) April +1.2% +1.2% +1.2%

06:00 Japan Prelim Machine Tool Orders, y/y April -21.5% -24.1%

09:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment May 24.9 27.3 27.6

09:00 Eurozone Industrial production, (MoM) March +0.4% +0.6% +1.0%

09:00 Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) March -3.1% -2.1% -1.7%

09:00 Eurozone ECOFIN Meetings May

09:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment May 36.3 39.5 36.4

09:30 Australia Annual Budget Release 2013

The single currency fell sharply, developing intra-day decline against the growing risk aversion. Analysts said the euro approached the initial goal of $ 1.3030, but attempts to increase immediately attracted sellers. However, it is unclear whether the upward correction is finished. Perhaps the market is too hurried to the speculations on the subject of yet another refi rate cut next month or the ECB move to negative interest rates on deposits, while exceeding the forecast of the European industrial production figures suggest that the ECB can not change the economic outlook in the next month.

Recall that the latest data, which were released today by Eurostat, the Statistical Office showed that up to March, industrial production increased significantly, thereby exceeded the estimates of experts, which increases the hope that the economy of the currency bloc, against all expectations, came out of the recession in the period from January to March. Recall that the official data on GDP for the first quarter will be presented tomorrow, and many economists expect a slight decrease, which will be the sixth consecutive quarterly decline and the longest period of decline on record.

According to the report, in March, industrial production increased by 1.0%, compared with an increase of 0.4% in February, which was the biggest increase since July 2011. Note that according to the average forecasts of experts, the value of this index would grow only by 0.6%.

Meanwhile, it was reported that on an annual basis, industrial production fell by 1.7%, after falling 3.1% in the previous month, which was the smallest decline since August 2012. These results suggest that industrial production rose by 0.3% in the first quarter, rebounded slightly after 2.1% fall in the last three months of 2012.

Value of the pound fell against the dollar on speculation investors reduced their holdings UK currency, before the Bank of England tomorrow will present its latest inflation forecast. Note that sterling reached a two-week low against the U.S. dollar, even after showed that house prices in the UK rose to its highest level since June 2010.

Recall also that tomorrow, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King will be the last time at a press conference in his current role. The next month it will take the post of Governor Mark Carney, who is currently the head of the Bank of Canada.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair dropped to $ 1.2944

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.5267

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y101.74

At 12:30 GMT the United States will present the import price index for April. At 20:30 GMT the United States will announce the change in the volume of crude oil, according to API. At 23:50 GMT Japan will release the index of activity in the services sector in March.

14.05.2013 12:00


Market Focus

  • The eurozone started the third quarter on a solid footing, according to PMI survey data
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • German private sector output growth slowed for the second month running in July
  • ECB's Mersch says as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that uncoventional policies will remain necessary
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