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13.05.2013 12:15

European session: the euro exchange rate fluctuates


01:30 Australia Home Loans March +2.0% +3.8% +5.2%

01:30 Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence April 2 -2

05:30 China Retail Sales y/y April +12.6% +12.8% +12.8%

05:30 China Fixed Asset Investment April +20.9% +21.1% +20.6%

05:30 China Industrial Production y/y April +8.9% +9.4% +9.3%

07:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y March +2.4% +1.0% -0.9%

09:00 Eurozone Eurogroup Meetings May

The euro exchange rate was slightly higher against the dollar, helped by expectations of a report on retail sales in the United States. Recall that in March retail sales fell by 0.4%. The weakness was observed in many sectors, particularly in the consumer category, where during the month was recorded a decline in sales at sporting goods stores, book and music stores, as well as in the general stores. We add that the sale of vehicles and spare parts also saw a decline in March. Economists said the growth in employment and incomes continue to support consumer spending, however, the growth rate is unlikely to be able to maintain a tangible improvement in the retail sector. Note also that for the three-month average basis, retail sales growth has slowed, suggesting that consumers are still not sure about the adequacy of the economic recovery to pick up the costs on an ongoing basis. We expect that retail sales will continue to decline in April, but at a slower pace than in March.

The yen fell below 102 yen to the dollar after Tokyo avoided direct criticism of its aggressive monetary program for the Group of Seven meeting over the weekend, putting the Japanese currency on the way to a further decline in the short term.

Analysts and traders said the dollar broke through the psychologically important level of 100 yen last week due to signs of improvement in the labor market in the United States, not by the actions of the Bank of Japan. The data show that Japanese investors are buying more foreign assets, which also precipitated the fall of the yen on Friday.

The Australian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar on the background of the fact that a survey conducted by the National Bank of Australia, showed that business confidence fell in April, ahead of the release of the federal budget. Note that the index of the NAB business confidence fell to -2 in April from 2 in March, and the conditions index rose to -6 from -7 in March.

Also today it was announced that in March month agreed amount of housing loans has increased significantly, thus showing the greatest growth over the past four years, as a series of interest rate cuts by the central bank since 2011 has increased the demand for mortgages. According to the report, on an annual basis, mortgage lending rose 5.2 percent in March after seasonal adjustment. It was the biggest gain since March 2009. In addition, it was reported that the number of loan approvals rose for a third consecutive month, after rising 2.1 percent in February and 0.7 percent in January.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair is trading in the range of $ 1.2951-$ 1.2992

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.5380

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y101.49

At 12:30 GMT the United States will become aware of the change in retail sales in April, and 14:00 GMT - the change in our Business Inventories for March. Also at 14:00 GMT the United States will announce the percentage of late payments on the mortgage for the 1st quarter. At 22:45 GMT New Zealand will report on changes in the volume of retail trade and changes in retail sales excluding auto sales for the 1st quarter. At 23:01 GMT Britain will present a balance in housing prices from the RICS in April.

13.05.2013 12:00


Market Focus

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  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • German private sector output growth slowed for the second month running in July
  • ECB's Mersch says as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that uncoventional policies will remain necessary
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