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06.05.2013 06:04

Asian session: The yen held

01:30 Australia Retail sales (MoM) March +1.3% +0.2% -0.4%

01:30 Australia Retail Sales Y/Y March +4.6%

01:30 Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) April -1.5% -1.3%

01:45 China HSBC Services PMI April 54.3 51.1

The yen held a loss against the dollar after its biggest decline in two weeks on signs the U.S. recovery is gathering pace. The yen depreciated beyond 99 per dollar on May 3 for the first time in a week after a U.S. Labor Department report showed employment picked up more than forecast last month and the jobless rate declined to 7.5 percent. Payrolls expanded by 165,000 workers last month following a revised 138,000 increase in March that was larger than first estimated. Initial jobless claims probably rose in the seven days ended May 4 from a more than five-year low of 324,000 the week before. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of the May 9 report is for claims of 335,000.

Australia's currency slid against all 16 of its most-traded peers after a report showed retail sales unexpectedly shrank, a day before the central bank decides on interest rates. In Australia, retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.4 percent in March after gaining 1.3 percent the previous month, a government report showed today. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted a gain of 0.1 percent. There's a 51 percent chance that the RBA will lower its benchmark 3 percent rate when it meets tomorrow, Bloomberg calculations based on overnight-index swap rates indicate.

Japanese markets are closed today for a holiday.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair rose $ 1.3140

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair rose $ 1.5600

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair around Y99.10

There is a full data calendar in Europe Monday, although market reactions could be muted, with the UK centre closed to celebrate the Bank Holiday. The early releases on the Continent will see the final April services PMI numbers cross the wires. Spanish services PMI numbers are first up, at 0713GMT, followed by Italy at 0743GMT, France at 0748GMT, Germany at 0753GMT and the overall EMU data due at 0758GMT . No doubt these PMI data will confirm the narrative already seen in the flash data 10 days or so ago and which proved, in part, the catalyst for he ECB to take the recent policy action it did. At 0900GMT, the EMU March retail trade numbers will hit the screens. At 1300GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi is slated to speak in Rome, with ears open to any nuances following the rate cut last Thursday. Comments form Pierre Moscovici, French FinMin, are likely to further undermine the simmering tensions between Germany and France, the FT says. According to the FT, Moscovici hailed the "end of the dogma of austerity" in a radio interview after his German counterpart, Wolfgang Schauble, offered more flexibility on deficit cutting.

Market Focus

  • The Bank of Japan decided by a 7-2 majority vote to hold the interest rate at -0.10%
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels from the previous week
  • Australian unemployment rate stable at 5.6% in June
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