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26.10.2012 06:26

Asian session: The yen strengthened



21:45 New Zealand Trade Balance September -0.789 -0.853 -0.791

23:30 Japan National Consumer Price Index, y/y September -0.4% -0.4% -0.3%

23:30 Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food, y/y September -0.3% -0.2% -0.1%

23:30 Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index, y/y October -0.7% -0.8% -0.8%

23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food, y/y October -1.1% -1.1% -1.0%


The yen strengthened against all of its major counterparts as corporate earnings concerns dragged down Asian stocks, boosting demand for refuge assets. The currency earlier touched a four-month low against the dollar as a report showing Japan’s consumer prices declined for a fifth month added to prospects the central bank will expand monetary easing. Japan’s consumer prices excluding fresh food fell 0.1 percent in September from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said today. That’s well below the Bank of Japan’s 1 percent inflation target and compares with the 0.2 percent slide estimated by economists.

The euro holds in range before data forecast to show German consumer confidence will fail to improve in November and French household sentiment fell for a fourth month, adding to signs that the region’s debt crisis is hampering growth in its biggest economies. Also, Spanish data due today is forecast to show unemployment increased in the third quarter. Spain’s unemployment rate climbed to 25 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30 from 24.6 percent in the second quarter, according to economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg News. The National Statistics Institute will release the figure today.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $1.2930-55.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair was trading around the level of $1.6120.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair updated four-month high, and then fell to Y80.00.

There is a fairly light calendar of data to close out the week, with US 3Q GDP and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report likely to provide the main area of focus. At 0600GMT we see the release of Germany September import prices. The German GfK November consumer confidence report is due to be published at 0610GMT. At 0645GMT, France's October consumer confidence survey is due along with their October quarterly industry survey. At 1000GMT, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble is likely to speak in parliament on financial market stability, due to be conducted in Berlin. US data kicks off at 1230GMT, with the advanced report for third quarter GDP, which is expected to show growth of just under 2.0%. The University of Michigan will also release its final October consumer sentiment report at 1355GMT, and will be worth watching after the surprise surge in the preliminary release. Consumer confidence, along with sub-8.0% unemployment and better housing data, have given the economic recovery some real teeth.

Market Focus

  • The eurozone started the third quarter on a solid footing, according to PMI survey data
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • German private sector output growth slowed for the second month running in July
  • ECB's Mersch says as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that uncoventional policies will remain necessary
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