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28.09.2012 12:18

European session: the euro fluctuated



05:30 France GDP, q/q (finally) Quarter II 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
05:30 France GDP, Y/Y (finally) Quarter II +0.3% +0.3% +0.3%
06:00 Germany Retail sales, real adjusted August -0.9% +0.5% +0.3%
06:00 Germany Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y August -1.0% -0.9% -0.8%
06:45 France Consumer spending August -0.4% -0.8%
06:45 France Consumer spending, y/y August -0.7% -0.5%
07:00 Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator September 1.57 1.54 1.67
09:00 Eurozone Harmonized CPI, Y/Y September +2.6% +2.4% +2.7%

Euro fluctuates against the dollar on expectations of the results of stress tests of Spanish banks, as well as a possible downgrade by Moody's rating of Spain.
At the beginning of the European session, the euro has grown in the wake of news from Spain. On the eve of the Spanish government approved the draft budget for 2013, which provides for the reduction of GDP by 0.5%. However, according to international financial institutions and major banks, reducing the GDP of Spain in the next year will be at least 1%.
According to Finance Minister Cristobal Montoro, Spain to fulfill the task of achieving the planned target budget deficit of 6.3% in 2012, and next year the deficit was reduced to 4.5%. These indicators will be achieved by reducing government spending, tax increases and structural reforms that will save up to 40 billion euros.
Today, the players' attention is focused on the results of stress tests of Spanish banks, the Agency Oliver Wyman. According to previous estimates, banks may need E60-70 billion of capital against the results of the June stress testing agency Roland Berger, reveal the lack of funds in the E51-62 billion Others believe that these figures do not have anything to do with reality, because it does not take into account the volume performing loans on the balance sheets of institutions (the index is close to E170 billion).
With regard to regional statistics, consumer price inflation in the euro area September unexpectedly accelerated despite the recession, helped by higher prices of energy. Preliminary index HICP recorded an increase of 2.7% y / y vs. 2.6% August, as reported today in Luxembourg office statistics. Analysts surveyed before the release, expect the index to fall 2.4%. The main driver was the increase in energy prices (+9.2% from +8.9% in August), in the index HICP excluding energy registered a rise of only 0.8%. For 2 years in a row the rate of inflation in the euro area held above the ECB target of 2% threshold. As reported this week, the central bank Ewald Nowotny and Benoit Cair, Monetary Policy Committee at the meeting on October 4, is likely to leave rates unchanged value.
The British pound fell against the U.S. dollar. The index of activity in the service sector in Britain rose by only 0.1% against expectations of a 1.5%. Negative sentiment is partly returned to the market, as the budget of Spain caused some skepticism. Spanish bond yield rose above 6%.

EUR / USD: pair rose to $ 1.2959 and then fell to $ 1.2914
GBP / USD: pair dropped to $ 1.6185
USD / JPY: pair updated week low Y77.42 and then rose to an intraday high of Y77.70

The day ended block of statistics from the U.S.: 12:30 GMT - the main index for personal consumption expenditures, deflator for personal consumption expenditures, the change in spending for August, at 13:00 GMT - an index of housing prices in 20 cities S & P / CaseShiller, national composite house price index S & P / CaseShiller for July, at 13:45 GMT - Chicago PMI index for September and 13:55 GMT - an indicator of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan in September.

28.09.2012 11:54


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