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15.05.2012 08:00

Asian session: The euro traded near an almost four- month low


01:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes -

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) April +4.0% -0.7%

01:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) April +4.0% +7.3%

05:00 Japan Consumer Confidence April 40.3 40.9 40.0

The euro traded near an almost four- month low amid mounting doubts that Greece can avoid an exit from the currency union as the region’s finance ministers meet for a second day in Brussels. Greece’s president will call a meeting of leaders of all parliamentary parties except for an ultra-nationalist party today to make the case for a government of prominent non- politicians. The 17-nation currency traded 0.3 percent from a three-month low against the yen before a report forecast to show Europe’s economy contracted. The euro-region’s gross domestic product probably fell 0.2 percent in the first quarter from the previous three-month period when it contracted 0.3 percent, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The European Commission releases the data today.

In France, Francois Hollande is to be sworn in today as president of the second-biggest euro economy, in the nation’s first power shift to the Socialists since 1981. Hollande’s bid to inject a pro-growth element into the austerity-dominated approach to the region’s debt crisis got a boost on May 13 when German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party was drubbed in elections in Germany’s largest, most industrial state, North Rhine-Westphalia. Merkel is set to host Hollande in Berlin today hours after his inauguration.

The dollar remained higher against most of its major peers before the Federal Reserve releases minutes tomorrow of its last board meeting. The Fed will release the minutes from its April 25 gathering tomorrow. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said after the meeting that he’s prepared to “do more” to boost the economic recovery and ensure that inflation remains close to target.

The U.S. consumer-price index probably rose 2.3 percent in April from a year earlier, down from 2.7 percent in March, according to the median economist estimate in a Bloomberg poll before the data today.

EUR/USD: the pair traded in a range $1.2815-$1.2840.

GBP/USD: the pair traded  in a range $1.6085-$1.6105.

USD/JPY: the pair traded  in range Y79.80-Y79.95.

This morning in Europe sees the release of the flash Q1 GDP data, starting with France at 0530GMT, which is expected to come in flat on the quarter. German flash GDP data is due at 0600GMT and is expected to rise just 0.1% q/q. Also in Europe today, from 0630GMT, the Ecofin EU finance ministers are due to discuss issues relating to the European Investment Bank, bank capital rules, and savings tax agreements with Switzerland, at a meeting in Brussels. France employment data is due at 0645GMT, while Italy releases Q1 flash

GDP at 0800GMT. UK trade data at 0830GMT is expected to see a reduction in the trade balance to -8.4 billion with the non-EU balance at -4.7 billion and total trade at -2.9 billion. The EMU GDP data comes at 0900GMT along with the Germany ZEW  data and is expected to show a reading of -0.2% q/q.  At 1745GMT, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande give a press conference after a meeting in Berlin. US data starts at 1145GMT with the ICSC weekly mail sales data, while at 1230GMT, retail sales, CPI and the NY Fed Empire State Survey are all due. US data continues at 1255GMT with the weekly Redbook chain store sales data and then at 1300GMT by the Treasury International Capital System totals (TICS) data. At 1330GMT, Federal Reserve Governor Elizabeth Duke speaks to the National Association of Realtors in Washington. Further US data at 1400GMT sees Business Inventories as well as the Housing Market Index from the NAHB.

15.05.2012 07:40

Forex: Monday’s review

Market Focus

  • Euro Area trade balance surplus declined significantly in August
  • Consumer prices in China were up 1.6 percent on year in September,
  • US consumer sentiment surged in early October, reaching its highest level since the start of 2004 says UoM
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