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10.05.2012 08:06

Forex: Wednesday’s review


Yesterday the euro weakened for an eighth day against the dollar as Greek politicians struggled to form a new government, fueling concern the nation will leave Europe’s currency union. The 17-nation currency extended its run of losses to the longest since September 2008 as Spain’s 10-year bond yields climbed back above 6 percent. Euro area leaders from the European Central Bank’s Joerg Asmussen to German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble have begun to raise doubts that Greece can stay in the monetary union. Growth in German exports slowed to 0.9 percent in March from 1.5 percent in February, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said.

The pound fell for a second day against the dollar as a report showed U.K. retail sales fell the most in more than a year. Sterling slipped 0.2 percent to $1.6126 and rose 0.3 percent to 80.26 pence per euro before the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee decides whether to add more stimulus to its existing 325 billion pounds ($485 billion) of bond purchases.

The yen strengthened against all of it 16 major counterparts, and the dollar advanced versus all but the yen, amid speculation the global economy is stalling, boosting demand for safer assets.

Canada’s dollar dropped to a three-month low as oil declined for a sixth day.

EUR/USD: yesterday the pair fell below $1.2950.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair decreased below $1.6100, however restored later.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair fell to Y79.50.

European data for Thursday starts at 0645GMT with France industrial output and government deficit data. ECB speakers start at  0700GMT when ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny is due to  participate in the Austrian National Bank's conference entitled "European Monetary Union: Lessons from the Debt Crisis", in Vienna. Also at 0700GMT, German Chancellor Angela Merkel delivers a government declaration in parliament on the upcoming G8 meeting, in Berlin. At 0800GMT, ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet is due to give the keynote address at the Austrian National Bank's conference, while at the same time, the ECB publishes the Monthly Bulletin for May. UK data at 0830GMT includes BOE Quoted Rates and Vehicle Licensing  Statistics but focus will be on the Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output data. US data starts at 1230GMT with the weekly jobless claims as well as trade and import/export price data. Initial jobless claims are expected to rise 3,000 to 370,000 in the May 5 week after falling 27,000 in the previous week. Also in the US today, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is due to speak via satellite at the 48th Annual Conference on Bank Structure and Competition, sponsored by the Chicago Fed, followed by Martin Gruenberg, acting chairman of the FDIC. At 1400GMT, Minneapolis Fed Pres Naryana Kocherlakota speaks t the Business Law Institute in Minneapolis on "Toward a More Transparent FOMC.' US data continues at 1430GMT with the weekly EIA natural gas storage data.

10.05.2012 08:14

ECB Monthly Report:

Market Focus

  • The eurozone started the third quarter on a solid footing, according to PMI survey data
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • German private sector output growth slowed for the second month running in July
  • ECB's Mersch says as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that uncoventional policies will remain necessary
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