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15.02.2012 08:39

Forex: Tuesday’s review

Yesterday the
euro fell against the dollar amid concerns of investors regarding the provision of Greece second package of financial assistance. Previously, support for the single currency had data on economic expectations in the euro area and in Germany, as well as successful placement of debt securities of the Governments of Italy and Spain. In particular, the index of economic expectations of the Center for European economy (ZEW) in the euro zone rose in February compared with January, by 24.4 points - down to minus 8.1 points. This indicator of investor confidence in the economy of Germany in February rose by 27.0 points to 5.4 points. The indicator was plus first time since May 2011. These data were significantly better than forecasts of analysts who had expected an average growth rate for Germany to minus 15 points. However, the positive statistics and successful debt auctions failed for a long time to return to the growth of European currency: the evening it became cheaper again in anticipation of meeting the working group of finance ministers in the eurozone. It is expected that it was at this meeting european politics take a key decision - whether or not to unlock the second package of financial aid to Greece. Formally, the decision should be made the Eurogroup, which will meet on Wednesday, after a meeting of the working group. Earlier, the British newspaper Financial Times reported that the February 15  european politics may defer a decision on financial help Greece, asking her government to provide more detailed explanations of how they intend to implement cost-saving measures. At the beginning of the day the single currency was under pressure because of the decision by Moody's downgrade ratings of Italy, Portugal, Spain, Slovakia, Slovenia and Malta, as well as to reduce the forecast for first-class rating "AAA" France, Britain and Austria.

The yen fell after the Bank of Japan eased monetary policy by increasing the program of buying assets. Bank of Japan eased monetary policy on Tuesday, expanding the purchase of the assets of 10 trillion yen (130 billion dollars) to 65 trillion yen due to the increasing political pressure for more decisive action to curb deflation and facilitate the economic impact of a strong national currency. Central Bank also said that he sees the purpose of establishing its policy on the level of consumer inflation of 1 percent.

EUR/USD: yesterday the pair fell below $1.3100.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair decreased on a floor of a figure.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair gain on a figure.

Another heavy calendar on Wednesday, European growth data continues at 0700GMT, with the release of German Q4 data. UK labour data is expected at 0930 GMT. The Markit reports for REC/KPMG showed some growth in both temporary/contract work and permanent placements in December followed by a marked acceleration in jobs growth in January. This tallies with the pick-up in the activity data. The three-monthly ILO data will still show a marked rise in unemployment, as the outturn for the first two months is known (bar revisions), but claimant count jobless is expected to show another minimal rise and the data overall should provide evidence the deterioration in the labour market is easing. At 1030GMT, the BOE releases its Quarterly Inflation report.

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