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30.11.2011 08:27

Forex: Tuesday’s review

The euro dropped versus the majority of its most-traded counterparts amid speculation Europe’s effort to expand its bailout fund to 1 trillion euros ($1.3 trillion) is falling short. The 17-nation currency pared gains versus the dollar after the European Central Bank failed to offset the extra liquidity created by its bond purchase program. Euro-area finance ministers are meeting today. Europe’s efforts to expand its rescue fund are flagging, forcing renewed consideration of a role for the ECB in insulating Spain and Italy from the debt crisis, two officials familiar with the discussions said. Finance ministers will have an initial discussion today on channeling ECB loans to cash-strapped euro nations through the International Monetary Fund, aiming to bring the central bank onto the front lines without violating its ban on direct lending to governments, said the people, who declined to be identified because the talks are at an early stage.

Australia’s dollar was the biggest winners versus the greenback as investors sought higher-yielding assets. Australia’s dollar rallied for a second day against the greenback, rising as much as 1.8 percent before trading at $1.0008, up 1 percent. It fell for the past four weeks. The Aussie pared its drop for November to 4.8 percent. The Aussie was the best performer against the U.S. dollar yesterday among the most-traded currencies, rising 2 percent as equities rallied worldwide.

EUR/USD: yesterday the pair advanced.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair the pair has grown on a figure.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair fell.                                

European events for Wednesday start at 0700GMT with the German ILO measure of employment and also retail sales from Germany. This is followed by housing starts/permits and PPI data from France, while at 0855GMT we get the main labour market data from Germany. EMU data at 1000GMT includes the October unemployment rate and the November measure of flash HICP. US data starts at 1200GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index, which is followed at 1230GMT by Challenger Layoffs data, at 1315GMT by the ADP National Employment Report and then at 1330GMT by the ISM-NY Business Index and third quarter productivity, which is expected to be revised down to a 2.6% rate of growth, as GDP was revised down. As a result, unit labor costs are expected to be revised up to a 2.2% rate of decline. US data continues at 1445GMT with the Chicago PMI, which is forecast to rise to a reading of 59.0 in November after falling slightly to 58.4 in October. The Chicago PMI is the one index that appears to consistently indicate expansion. NAR Pending Home Sales and the Help-wanted Online index follow at 1500GMT, while at 1530GMT the weekly EIA Crude Oil Stocks data is due. At 1545GMT, Philly Fed Pres Charles Plosser moderates a panel discussion at the San Francisco Fed's Asia Economic Policy Conference. Later data includes the 1900GMT release of the Fed's Beige Book and the 8GMT release of Agriculture Prices data.

Market Focus

  • The Bank of Japan decided by a 7-2 majority vote to hold the interest rate at -0.10%
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels from the previous week
  • Australian unemployment rate stable at 5.6% in June
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