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22.11.2011 08:17

Forex: Monday’s review

The euro rose against the U.S. dollar against the backdrop of media reports that a special committee ("supercommittee") of the U.S. Congress, designed to reduce the budget deficit will soon announce the failure to reach a compromise solution. Before November 23 "supercommittee" must submit a plan to reduce the budget deficit ($ 1.2 trillion. For 10 years), however, to the present moment, the consensus between Republicans and Democrats on the structure of public spending cuts was not found until. Despite the fact that the costs would be cut in any case (after the "dip" in the negotiations the country will face automatic "sequestering" the budget for the same amount), the inability of the major parties to take a decision on the consolidated fiscal policy could provoke a new round of concerns about reducing the country's sovereign rating international agencies (Fitch and Moody's).

Earlier, the euro fell against the dollar and the yen amid growing profitability of French, Spanish and Belgian bonds. Bonds in France today showed growth after rating agency Moody's said that the increase in the cost of borrowing for France could negatively affect its credit rating, which is now at AAA. As a result, the yield on 10-year French bond rose 8 basis points to 3.53%. Bond Fund Global Sovereign Open Fund, owned by Kokusai Asset Management, sold November 17, Spanish and Belgian government bonds. This has contributed to the profitability of Spanish and Belgian bonds also showed growth.

The Swiss franc rose most of its major counterparts as investors sought refuge.

The British pound fell to a month low against the U.S. dollar after British Prime Minister Cameron announced that next week the government will present an ambitious scheme of credit easing, as the UK must tackle its own debt. Sterling fell against the dollar and euro as home sellers in the U.K. cut asking prices.

EUR/USD: yesterday the pair was under pressure.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair has lost one and a half figure.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair holds in range Y76.75-Y76.95.

On Tuesday at 0930GMT, UK data sees the release of the October public sector finances. The bulk of data releases is on the other side of the pond. At 1145GMT, the ICSC-Goldman Store Sales data for the November 19 week are released. At 1330GMT, the Canadian September retail sales numbers are out.The main US release is at 1330GMT, with teh release of the US Q3 GDP second reading. Third quarter GDP is forecast to be revised down to a 2.4% rate of growth. The key factors are expected to be upward revision to PCE, nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment that should be offset by downward revisions to inventories and net exports. The chain price index is expected to be unrevised at +2.5%. At 1355GMT, the Nov 19 week Redbook Average data is released.At 1800GMT, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Narayana Kocherlakota speaks to CFA Winnipeg, Canada.

22.11.2011 08:04

Tech on USD/JPY

Market Focus

  • The eurozone started the third quarter on a solid footing, according to PMI survey data
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • German private sector output growth slowed for the second month running in July
  • ECB's Mersch says as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that uncoventional policies will remain necessary
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