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16.11.2011 08:29

Forex: Tuesday’s review

The euro fell to a one-month low against the yen as European bond yields surged at auctions and Mario Monti, Italy’s premier-in-waiting, faced resistance to forming a cabinet. The 17-nation currency slid below $1.35 as Italy’s 10-year yields surpassed the 7 percent threshold that prompted other nations to seek bailouts. Italian 10-year yields climbed as high as 7.07 percent after rising to a euro-era record of 7.48 percent on Nov. 9. The extra yield investors demand to hold the 10-year debt of Spain, France, Austria and Belgium instead of German bunds widened to the most since the euro was introduced in 1999. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research said its index of German investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict developments six months in advance, decreased to minus 55.2 this month, the lowest since October 2008.

The Swiss franc dropped versus the dollar after the central bank’s Vice Chairman Thomas Jordan said the currency remains “very strong.” Hans Hess, president of the country’s industry group Swissmem, told reporters in Bern that the central bank should raise the ceiling. Fair value, the measure for currencies using prices for similar goods and services in two countries, is 1.35 to 1.40 francs per euro.

The dollar got a boost as Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said he sees decreasing odds the central bank will need to ease policy further on signs the U.S. economy is poised for growth. U.S. retail sales rose in October more than forecast, and manufacturing in the New York region unexpectedly expanded this month, reports showed yesterday.

EUR/USD: yesterday the pair fell and lost figure.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair decrease.

USD/JPY: yesterday the pair traded nearby Y77.00.

On Wednesday UK data includes labour market data at 0930GMT, which is expected to make grim reading. The lowest forecast from any analyst in our survey was for a 15,000 rise in claimant count jobless on the month. The median forecast is 25k and the unemployment rate is expected to hit 8.2%. Faced with a deteriorating business outlook, employers appear to be switching to hiring temporary workers. The Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report is due at 1030GMT and is set to be a dovish report, with inflation shown falling back sharply from its current 5% level. In an  open letter Tuesday BOE Governor Mervyn King predicted inflation would drop rapidly in the next six months and "continue falling thereafter to around target by the end of next year." The Inflation Report forecasts extend out to end 2013 on unchanged policy and end 2014 on market rates, and analysts expect they will show CPI moving below the 2% target both two and three years ahead.US data starts at 1200GMT with the weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index, which is followed at 1330GMT by the October CPI data. Consumer prices are expected to rise 0.1% in October, based on early forecasts. Core CPI is expected to rise 0.2%. US data continues with the Treasury International Capital System (TICS) data at 1400GMT and then Industrial Production at 1415GMT. Industrial production is expected to rise 0.3% in October after rising 0.2% in September, based on early estimates. At 1745GMT, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren delivers a speech to the Boston Economic Club.

Market Focus

  • U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.5 million barrels from the previous week
  • Canada: Retail Sales, m/m, November 0.2% (forecast 0.5%)
  • U.S.: Nonfarm Payrolls, January 227 (forecast 175)
  • Eurozone: Consumer Confidence, January -4.9
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