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25.08.2011 08:11

FOREX: Wednesday's review

Data released:
08:00     Germany     IFO business climate index (August)    108.7    111.0    112.9
09:00     EU(17)     Industrial orders (June)    -0.7%    0.5%    3.6%
09:00     EU(17)     Industrial orders (June) Y/Y     11.1%    11.9%    15.5%
12:30     USA     Durable goods orders (July)    4.0%    2.0%    -1.3 (-2.1)%
12:30     USA     Durable goods orders excluding transportation (July)    0.7%    -    0.1%
12:30     USA     Durable goods orders excluding defence (July)    4.8%    -    -1.8%
23:01     UK     Nationwide consumer confidence (July)    49    45    51

The dollar gained versus all of its 16 most-traded peers amid speculation about whether Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will say this week the central bank is willing to provide more stimulus for the economy.
Currencies of higher-yielding countries including New Zealand and South Africa fell as stocks fluctuated, damping risk appetite. Equities gained earlier amid bets Bernanke will say Aug. 26 at a conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that the Fed will take additional steps to spur the economy that may include a third round of debt purchases, or quantitative easing.
“The market is starting to retrace risk ahead of Friday’s Jackson Hole speech, and the dollar has got a bid,” said Jack Spitz, managing director of foreign exchange at National Bank of Canada in Toronto. “As we get closer to Friday, the market will come to the conclusion that Bernanke’s speech will likely not include QE3, but will probably allude to it, that it’s a potential and will be left on the table.”
The yen rose toward a postwar high against the dollar as Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda announced a $100 billion effort to help businesses cope with gains in the currency, reducing speculation Japan will intervene to curb gains.
The Swiss franc gained versus all of its most-traded counterparts as concern the U.S. economy may be faltering and the euro-area debt crisis is getting worse boosted demand for a refuge.
German business confidence fell to the lowest level in more than a year as a global slowdown and Europe’s debt crisis damped the outlook for economic growth.
The Ifo institute in Munich said its business climate index, a measure of German business confidence based on a survey of 7,000 executives, dropped to 108.7 in August from 112.9 in the prior month. The median estimate of economists in a survey was for a decrease to 111.

European data for Thursday starts at 0600GMT with German construction orders data for June. Later, France registered jobseekers data is due at 1600GMT. The most anticipated event of the week is the speeches Jackson Hole, which gets underway this evening. European speakers at the event include ECB President Trichet, where he will have chance to reflect on the euro zone's current economic weakness and maybe vent some frustration at the continuing failure of euro zone politicians to come up with a solution to the crisis. He will be joined by ECB
Executive Board Members Peter Praet and Gonzalez Paramo. Since he joined in June, Praet has had only a few public outings and this will be an opportunity to guage where this ECB member stands in terms of dovishness/hawkishness.In the UK, at 1000GMT, CBI Distributive Trades data is due, which is followed at 1100GMT when Bank of England MPC member Martin Weale delivers a speech at the Doncaster Chamber of Commerce. Weale has already given a fairly full explanation of his reasons for dropping his rate hike call at the August MPC meeting, but his comments will still be closely-watched.

25.08.2011 08:27

AUD/USD keeps positive mood

Market Focus

  • The Bank of Japan decided by a 7-2 majority vote to hold the interest rate at -0.10%
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels from the previous week
  • Australian unemployment rate stable at 5.6% in June
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