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Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics notes that France's Q2 GDP reading will be out ahead of overall EMU GDP data (August 16/Assumption Day holiday Aug 15).
HFE looks for the report to show a 0.3% decline in Q2, compared to most estimates looking for +0.3% instead (vs +0.9% q/q in Q1 and +1.4% y/y in 2011).
A -0.3% reading would bring GDP growth "down to a 1.4% y/y pace, compared to 2.2% in Q1, and leave economic activity 1.1% lower than its pre-downturn peak in the first quarter of 2008," he said.
The market may be "vulnerable to unexpected bad news about France," Weinberg says.
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