Forex: Wednesday's review
The dollar begins to rebound after its drop to the 11-week low versus a busket of currencies after Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said it’s time Republicans “face facts” and agree on a compromise plan. But prolonged standoff in Washington over hiking the U.S. debt ceiling continued.
The euro goes lower against the dollar after Standard & Poor’s lowered Greece’s credit rating to CC from CCC with negative outlook. The downgrade of Greece by 2 notches takes it to the same level as Moody's Ca rating (developing outlook). Fitch Ratings last downgraded Greece 3 notches on July 3 to CCC from B+ and removed it from Rating Watch Negative, as it has been since May 20.
The Australian dollar hit a fresh all-time high versus the dollar after the Reserve Bank of Australia reported about better-than-expected rise of consumer price index inflation in the second quarter, focusing the market’s attention back on the interest rates.
The New Zealand dollar reach record high versus US dollar amid reported advance in business confidance in July.
Both reports have renewed speculation that the central banks may tighten their monetary policies. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will release its interest rate decision tomorrow. Currently the main interest rate of Australia is at 4.75% and New Zealand’ is at 2.5%. Last month New Zealand central bank governor Alan Bollard hinted at a possible increase of the rate by 25 basis points in December.
The loonie plummetes against the dollar. Yesterday it hit the highest level over the last three years
Japan yen also moves down after reports from US.
EUR/USD: yesterday the pair decreased in $1.4370 area.
GBP/USD: yesterday the pair decreased in $1.6330 area.
USD/JPY: the pair holds at Y77.55-Y78.20.
European data for Thursday starts at 0600GMT with the ILO measure of German unemployment, while the main release at 0755GMT is expected to
produce a -10k jobless change with the rate remaining at 7.0%. Further EMU data at 0900GMT includes the business climate indicator and economic
confidence indicator, which are expected to show some mild decline.
UK data is limited to the CBI Distributive Trades data at 1000GMT, which will provide a useful update on the health of the High Street
going into Q3.
US data starts at 1230GMT when initial jobless claims are expected to rise 2,000 to 420,000 in the July 23 week after see-sawing in the previous weeks. Seasonal adjustment difficulties related to the usual auto retooling period should continue to be a factor.