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06.07.2011 08:16

Asian session review: Dollar weakens ahead of Payrolls

Data released:
05:00     Japan     Leading indicators composite index (May) preliminary    99.8    99.8    96.2
05:00     Japan     Coincident indicators composite index (May) preliminary    106.0    -    103.6

The dollar weakened Wednesday on speculation the U.S. jobless rate will remain elevated, delaying any tightening in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.
The greenback fell as economists said figures this week will show U.S. employers hired 100,000 workers last month, after adding 54,000 in May. The jobless rate held at 9.1%, the analysts predicted. Payroll increases of around 200,000 a month are needed for a sustained decline in the unemployment rate.
“We’re likely to see the dollar weak until we get the Fed indicating it needs to tighten,” said Joseph Capurso, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “The fundamentals of interest-rate differentials remain crucial to currency directions.”
Demand for the euro was limited before Greek bondholders meet with officials in Paris today to discuss their role in a second rescue for the debt-stricken nation.
“So many stakeholders are involved in Europe’s debt crisis, such as an international entity, a central bank, private financial firms, rating companies and policy makers,” said Daisaku Ueno, president of Gaitame.com Research Institute Ltd.. “We don’t know who will say what, or when. The euro can’t be on an uptrend.”
Moody’s Investors Service yesterday cut Portugal’s long- term government bond ratings to Ba2, two levels below investment grade.
The ECB will probably increase its main refinancing rate to 1.50% tomorrow from 1.25%.


EUR/USD printed session high on $1.4464 before slept on semi official sales to $1.4358. Now rate tries to recover.
GBP/USD tested strong support at $1.6100 before it was back to $1.6021.
USD/JPY tries to recover, but trades quite tight at Y80.95, above recent lows on Y80.80.

In Europe today's focus will be on final EU GDP (Q1) reading with no changes expected (09:00 GMT). Later (at 10:00 GMT) Germany is due to report on manufacturing orders for May.
US data start at 14:00 GMT with ISM Non-mfg PMI for June.

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