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09.06.2011 12:06

EU session review: Euro strengthens on prospects ECB to raise rates next month

Data released:
08:30     UK     Trade in goods (April), bln    -7.4    -7.5    -7.7
08:30     UK     Non-EU trade (April), bln    -4.3    -4.4    -4.5
11:00     UK     BoE meeting announcement    0.50%    0.50%    0.50%
11:45     EU(17)     ECB meeting announcement   1.25%     1.25%    1.25%

The euro rose against the yen and the dollar on speculation ECB's President Jean-Claude Trichet will signal today that policy makers intend to raise interest rates next month.
“The euro’s finding support on expectations that the ECB is likely to signal a rate increase next month,” said Jeremy Stretch at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. “It’s highly probable that Trichet will repeat the ‘strong vigilance’ phrase to indicate a possible rate hike in July.”
“There’s some expectation that the ECB can stay quite hawkish,” said Henrik Gullberg, a currency strategist at Deutsche Bank AG.
The BOE kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% at today’s meeting.
The ECB left its rate unchanged too - at 1.25%. The central bank raised borrowing costs in April for the first time in almost three years.
The Dollar Index slipped before a U.S. report that economists said will show the trade deficit widened to the most in 10 months.
Australia’s dollar fell after a report from the statistics bureau showed jobs increased by 7,800 in May from the previous month. That compared with the median estimate for a 25,000 gain.

EUR/USD printed session lows around $1.4583 before recivered to $1.4613 ahead of Trichet's conference.

GBP/USD  rose to highs on  $1.6463 before sliding to $1.6398. Rate failed to break under the figure and recovered to $1.6430.

USD/JPY tries to challenge Y80.00 sliding from earlier highs on Y80.30.

US data also starts at 1230GMT, when initial jobless claims are expected to fall 4,000 to 418,000 in the June 4 holiday week. At the same time, the international trade gap is expected to widen slightly to $49.0 billion in April after widening in March on rising energy prices.

Market Focus

  • The eurozone started the third quarter on a solid footing, according to PMI survey data
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • German private sector output growth slowed for the second month running in July
  • ECB's Mersch says as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that uncoventional policies will remain necessary
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