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21.04.2011 07:51

Asian session: The Australian dollar climbed

01:30 Australia Producer Price Index (YoY) (Q1) 2.9%
01:30 Australia Producer Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) 1.2%
05:00 Japan Coincident Index (Feb) 106.8
05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index (Feb) 104.2

The Australian dollar climbed to a record after a government report showed producer prices rose more than economists estimated in the first quarter, providing additional evidence that growth is quickening.
The so-called Aussie strengthened for a third day and New Zealand’s advanced for a second versus the U.S. currency as stock gains boosted demand for the nations’ higher-yielding assets. New Zealand’s dollar reached a three-year high versus the greenback as traders added to bets the central bank will raise interest rates over the next 12 months.
Producer prices in Australia rose 1.2 percent in the first quarter from the prior three months when they climbed 0.1 percent, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney. Economists forecast a 1 percent increase.
Rudd ruled out intervention in the so-called Aussie, which has gained 16 percent in the past year against the dollar. The currency’s gains have been spurred by revenue from shipments of coal and iron ore to China, and they have hurt Australian tourism, manufacturing and education.
Benchmark interest rates are 4.75 percent in Australia and 2.5 percent in New Zealand, compared with as low as zero in the U.S. and Japan, attracting investors to the South Pacific nations’ higher-yielding assets.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will raise its benchmark rate by 63 basis points in the next 12 months, a Credit Suisse Group AG index based on swaps showed today. That compares with a prediction of 49 basis points yesterday.

EUR/USD: the pair grown above a mark $1,4600. 
GBP/USD: the pair grown in around $1,6490.
USD/JPY: the pair shown low in the field of Y81,80 then returned above mark Y82,00.

The main core-European data release for Thursday is the German Ifo data at 0800GMT.
The UK data calendar is busy ahead of the first of two consecutive long-weekends, with data at 0830GMT today including Retail Sales, the Public Finances, SMMT Car Production and also BoE Trends in Lending, Capital Issuance data. Analysts expect a weak outturn for 
retail sales of -0.2% m/m, 1.0% y/y with ex-auto -0.3% m/m and 0.8% y/y. 
US data starts at 1230GMT, when initial jobless claims are expected to fall 17,000 to 395,000 in the April 16 employment survey week after surging in the previous week. Claims were also at a level of 390,000 in the March 12 employment survey week. The weekly Bloomberg Comfort Index is due at 1345GMT, while at 1400GMT, the Philadelphia Fed index is forecast to fall to 36.0 in April after hitting a 27-year high in March. The Empire State Index rose in 
Also at 1400GMT, the index of leading indicators is expected to rise 0.3% in March after the 0.8% rise in February. Positive contributions are expected from the steeper yield curve, slower vendor deliveries, and the longer manufacturing workweek. These should be offset by negative contributions from falling stock prices, consumer expectations, and money supply. The FHFA Home Price Index is also due at the same time, while the weekly EIA Natural Gas Stocks data follows at 1430GMT. Late US data sees the 2030GMT release of M2 Money Supply.

21.04.2011 07:46

Forex: Wednesday's review

Market Focus

  • The eurozone started the third quarter on a solid footing, according to PMI survey data
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • German private sector output growth slowed for the second month running in July
  • ECB's Mersch says as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that uncoventional policies will remain necessary
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