Forex: Wednesday's review
The euro advanced for the first time in four days against the yen and gained versus the dollar on speculation the European Central Bank will raise interest rates further even as nations such as Greece struggle to contain sovereign-debt turmoil.
The 17-nation euro rose as a boost in German manufacturing outweighed Greece’s record two-year note yield above 20 percent. The cost of insuring Greek government debt rose to a record yesterday, with contracts indicating investors see a greater than 60 percent chance of default within five years. Greece’s two-year yield rose 39 basis points to a record 20.73 percent.
The ECB governing council member Nout Wellink said yesterday in Toronto the central bank’s April 7 interest-rate increase sent to investors an “extremely important” signal aimed at preventing expectations of higher inflation.
Germany’s purchasing managers’ index for manufacturing unexpectedly climbed to 61.7 this month from 60.9 in March, according to Markit Economics. The median forecast of economists iwas for a decrease to 60. A reading above 50 signals an expansion.
EUR/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair grown in around $1,4530.
GBP/USD: on results of yesterday's session the pair grown in around $1,6400.
USD/JPY: positions of pair on results of yesterday's session practically havn't changed. The main core-European data release for Thursday is the German Ifo data at 0800GMT.The UK data calendar is busy ahead of the first of two consecutive long-weekends, with data at 0830GMT today including Retail Sales, the Public Finances, SMMT Car Production and also BoE Trends in Lending, Capital Issuance data. Analysts expect a weak outturn for
retail sales of -0.2% m/m, 1.0% y/y with ex-auto -0.3% m/m and 0.8% y/y.
US data starts at 1230GMT, when initial jobless claims are expected to fall 17,000 to 395,000 in the April 16 employment survey week after surging in the previous week. Claims were also at a level of 390,000 in the March 12 employment survey week. The weekly Bloomberg Comfort Index is due at 1345GMT, while at 1400GMT, the Philadelphia Fed index is forecast to fall to 36.0 in April after hitting a 27-year high in March. The Empire State Index rose in
Also at 1400GMT, the index of leading indicators is expected to rise 0.3% in March after the 0.8% rise in February. Positive contributions are expected from the steeper yield curve, slower vendor deliveries, and the longer manufacturing workweek. These should be offset by negative contributions from falling stock prices, consumer expectations, and money supply. The FHFA Home Price Index is also due at the same time, while the weekly EIA Natural Gas Stocks data follows at 1430GMT. Late US data sees the 2030GMT release of M2 Money Supply.