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03.03.2011 12:40

EU session review: Euro retreats from 4-month high before ECB decision

Data released:
07:00     Germany     Retail sales (January) real adjusted    1.4%    0.3%    -0.3%
07:00     Germany     Retail sales (January) real unadjusted Y/Y    2.6%    1.7%    -1.3%
08:45     Italy     PMI services (February)    53.1    51.1    49.9
08:50     France     PMI services (February)    59.7    60.8    57.8
08:55     Germany     PMI services (February) seasonally adjusted    58.6    59.5    60.3
09:00     EU(17)     PMI services (February)    56.8    57.2    55.9
09:00     Italy     PPI (January)    1.1%    0.9%    0.6%
09:00     Italy     PPI (January) Y/Y    5.1%    4.6%    4.6%
09:30     UK     CIPS services index (February)    56.2    54.2    54.5
10:00     EU(17)     Retail sales (January) adjusted    0.4%    0.2%    -0.4 (-0.6)%
10:00     EU(17)     Retail sales (January) adjusted Y/Y     0.7%    0.3%    -0.9%
10:00     EU(16)     GDP (Q4) revised    0.3%    0.3%    0.3%
10:00     EU(16)     GDP (Q4) revised Y/Y    2.0%    2.0%    2.0%

The euro declined against the dollar, falling from its strongest level in almost four months, before the European Central Bank announces a decision on interest rates.
ECB policy makers will leave their main refinancing rate unchanged at a record low of 1%, according to all economists in a survey, while central bank President Jean-Claude Trichet may indicate future policy at a press conference that follows the decision.
The ECB, which aims to keep annual gains in consumer prices to just below 2%, will publish inflation projections for 2011 and 2012 today after its monthly policy meeting.
The franc erased a decline against the euro after Swiss central bank Vice Chairman Thomas Jordan said there is no need for intervention at the moment. Also he noted that Swiss franc at very strong level at the moment.

EUR/USD rose to $1.3880 before tested session lows around $1.3830. Rate failed to break above the resistance/offers at $1.3880 and retretaed to $1.3859.

GBP/USD initially consolidated within the $1.6300/30 range before weakening to $1.6250.

USD/JPY remains within the Y81.70/90 range.

The main event of Thursday is set to be the European Central Bank meeting where the announcement is due at 1245GMT.
ECB President Trichet's press conference is at 1330GMT..
Jobless claims due to come at 13:30 GMT too.

Market Focus

  • Donald J. Trump was inaugurated as the 45th president of the United States
  • Canada: Retail Sales, m/m, November 0.2% (forecast 0.5%)
  • U.S.: Nonfarm Payrolls, January 227 (forecast 175)
  • Eurozone: Consumer Confidence, January -4.9
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